Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

Abstract

Oceans are expected to continue to be polluted and overexploited (established, but incomplete). Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) flows from freshwater into world oceans exceed sustainable levels and as a result the risks of dead zones and toxic algae blooms in coastal areas are projected to increase. This is largely related to increased fertilizer use in agricultural production and developments in wastewater treatment that are lagging behind improvements in access to sanitation. As a result of an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2), oceans are expected to further acidify, negatively affecting marine organisms' ability to create shells and skeletons or even resulting in their dissolution. Acidification is expected to increase most rapidly in polar regions. Finally, under current fishing strategies, the projected increase in demand for fish is expected to reduce the proportion of fish stocks that remain at biologically sustainable levels. {21.3.5} Preventable environmental health risks are projected to remain prominent in 2030, with related negative impacts on child mortality (established, but incomplete). Nearly one-quarter of all deaths globally in 2012 can be attributed to environmental factors, with a greater portion occurring in vulnerable populations (children and the elderly) and in developing countries. Prominent environmental risk factorsi.e. exposure to ambient air pollution, and not having access to clean water, adequate sanitation or modern energy servicestogether with global hunger are expected to improve towards 2030, but not fast enough to achieve related targets in all countries. Related global child mortality is projected to decline, but not enough to achieve the SDG targets in many developing countries. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa, child mortality rates remain high, with a continued, although smaller, share related to preventable environmental risk factors. {21.3.6}