Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia

Shrestha, Manoj; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne S.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.197

Cited by 51 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The combined future scenario showed potential increasing trends in flow with largest increases (13%) observed during late winters (Figure 3). Similar trend of higher flows were predicted in these catchments based on hypothetical deforestation scenario over the next 30 years (Nguyen et al 2018, Shrestha et al 2017 with land use change of greater concern as compared to future climate change.…”

Section: Identification Of Important Stressor and Most Responsive Spesupporting

confidence: 66%

“…These changes alter the physical and chemical characteristics of streams that result in loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land use and climate change has shown an increased nutrient enrichment and varying flow trends affecting the overall river health (Nguyen et al 2018, Shrestha et al 2017, Walsh et al 2005. Even though altered flow regimes have been widely discussed as an important variable affecting river ecosystems (Dewson et al 2007, Domisch et al 2017, only a few studies explored the impact on stream biota (Kakouei et al 2018, Kakouei et al 2017, Pyne and Poff 2017.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrated approach for predicting impacts of future climate and land-use changes on macroinvertebrates in a Mediterranean catchment using GF, SWAT and HEA models

2019

El Sawah, S. (Ed.) MODSIM2019, 23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.

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Climate and land use changes are expected to alter flow and nutrient regimes in catchments affecting stream habitats and aquatic biodiversity. Scenario analysis by an integrated modelling approach may assist to better understand after-effects of such projected changes on biodiversity. This study aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land use changes on the macroinvertebrate community of the Torrens river catchments, South Australia. Gradient forest (GF) determined average seasonal flow as main factor affecting macroinvertebrate assemblages in this catchment. A catchment model developed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate flow under following scenarios: 1) future climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) based on six global circulation models, 2) hypothetical land use change scenario of deforestation over the next 30 years, and 3) scenario combining land use and climate change. Results of the future climate change scenario suggested decreased monthly flow due to declining precipitation and increasing air temperature, in contrast to the future land use change scenario of deforestation that predicted increased monthly flows. The combined future scenario to some extent suggested a trade-off between projected climate and land use changes but indicated dominating land use impacts due to deforestation resulting in increased runoff and higher flows. The Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm (HEA) was used to model flow-driven abundances of GF-identified key species Hydrobiidae spp. and Tasmanocoenis tillyardi over 14 years at a representative stream site. The coefficients of determination r 2 of the HEA models ranged between 0.88 and 0.96. Results indicated Hydrobiidae spp. to be tolerant and adaptive to altered high flows under the future combined scenario by showing higher abundance as compared to individual climate change and land use change scenarios. In contrast, T. tillyardi has shown affinity to low flow conditions and decreased abundance in future combined scenario. The integrated modelling approach based on SWAT and HEA proved to be suitable for studying stream health under the impact of projected future climate and land uses.

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Section: Identification Of Important Stressor and Most Responsive Spesupporting

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated approach for predicting impacts of future climate and land-use changes on macroinvertebrates in a Mediterranean catchment using GF, SWAT and HEA models

2019

El Sawah, S. (Ed.) MODSIM2019, 23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.

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“…Despite all efforts, three major sources of uncertainty were evident in the hydrological modelling for the Neka River basin: (a) uncertainty in the model parameters and the conceptual model assumptions, because the results of the SM and ET analyses were based on the output from a SWAT, which made simulation of these parameters less reliable; (b) uncertainties in the predictions of land cover change (the businessas-usual scenario is based on the historic trend of change over two time periods, but will probably be affected by changes in policy, the price of crops, and population growth, which will affect the patterns of land use and land cover in the future); and (c) uncertainties in the simulation of climate change (high levels of uncertainty are introduced by simulating future precipitation scenarios among various models) (Abbaspour et al 2015, Mehdi et al 2015a. Quantification of some modelling uncertainties is possible by using the multi-model ensemble approach in climate projections that we have undertaken, as suggested by some authors (Mehdi et al 2015b, Shrestha et al 2017. To reduce the uncertainty of climate models, we used 17 climate CMIP5 models to evaluate the importance of the ensemble approach in impact analysis and computed changes in the 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles, and in the average for obtaining the broad range of variability in discharge projections by climate runs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of future land cover and climate change on the water balance in northern Iran

Shooshtari

Shayesteh

Gholamalifard

et al. 2017

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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We evaluated the potential impacts of future land cover change and climate variability on hydrological processes in the Neka River basin, northern Iran. This catchment is the main source of water for the intensively cultivated area of Neka County. Hydrological simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. An ensemble of 17 CMIP5 climate models was applied to assess changes in temperature and precipitation under the moderate and high emissions scenarios. To generate the business-as-usual scenario map for year 2050 we used the Land Change Modeler. With a combined change in land cover and climate, discharge is expected to decline in all seasons except the end of autumn and winter, based on the inter-model average and various climate models, which illustrated a high degree of uncertainty in discharge projections. Land cover change had a minor influence on discharge relative to that resulting from climate change.

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“…Up to date, however, the majority of the studies on climate change and water quality have focused on assessing its impact on pollutant loads from non-point sources especially those from agricultural runoff (e.g. Fan and Shibata, 2015;Culbertson et al, 2016;Teshager et al, 2016;Serpa et al, 2017;Shrestha et al, 2017;Trang et al, 2017). Some studies have also further evaluated the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of various best management practices (BMPs) in reducing pollutant loads from agricultural runoff (Woznicki and Nejadhashemi, 2012;Jayakody et al, 2014;Mehdi et al, 2015;Panagopoulos et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on TN load and its control in a River Basin with complex pollution sources

Yang

Warren

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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It is increasingly recognized that climate change could affect the quality of water through complex natural and anthropogenic mechanisms. Previous studies on climate change and water quality have mostly focused on assessing its impact on pollutant loads from agricultural runoff. A sub-daily SWAT model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from all known anthropogenic sources including industries, municipal sewage treatment plants, concentrated and scattered feedlot operations, rural households, and crop production in the Upper Huai River Basin. This is a highly polluted basin with total nitrogen (TN) concentrations frequently exceeding Class V of the Chinese Surface Water Quality Standard (GB3838-2002). Climate change projections produced by 16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in the mid (2040-2060) and late (2070-2090) century were used to drive the SWAT model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both the TN loads and the effectiveness of three water pollution control measures (reducing fertilizer use, constructing vegetative filter strips, and improving septic tank performance) in the basin. SWAT simulation results have indicated that climate change is likely to cause an increase in both monthly average and extreme TN loads in February, May, and November. The projected impact of climate change on TN loads in August is more varied between GCMs. In addition, climate change is projected to have a negative impact on the effectiveness of septic tanks in reducing TN loads, while its impacts on the other two measures are more uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, reducing fertilizer use remains the most effective measure for reducing TN loads under different climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, improving septic tank performance is relatively more effective in reducing annual TN loads, while constructing vegetative filter strips is more effective in reducing annual maximum monthly TN loads.

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Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia

Cited by 51 publications

References 18 publications

Integrated approach for predicting impacts of future climate and land-use changes on macroinvertebrates in a Mediterranean catchment using GF, SWAT and HEA models

Integrated approach for predicting impacts of future climate and land-use changes on macroinvertebrates in a Mediterranean catchment using GF, SWAT and HEA models

Impacts of future land cover and climate change on the water balance in northern Iran

Impacts of climate change on TN load and its control in a River Basin with complex pollution sources

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