Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie A.; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi; Doubler, Dana L.; Yu, Lejiang; Walters, Claudia K.

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05135-0

Cited by 30 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…37 It links the large-scale circulation disturbances with regional climate proxies and regulates the intensity and longevity of mesoscale convective complexes across the central United States. 38 In our previous studies on climate extremes in various regions across the United States and Europe, 12,18,39 we have also identified the Gulf of Mexico as a dominant source of moisture inflow. For instance, a statistical and physical framework linking extreme precipitation in the Northeast United States to its origin in the Gulf of Mexico is put forward in ref.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Coupled flow accumulation and atmospheric blocking govern flood duration

Najibi

Devineni

et al. 2019

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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We present a physically based Bayesian network model for inference and prediction of flood duration that allows for a deeper understanding of the nexus of antecedent flow regime, atmospheric blocking, and moisture transport/release mechanisms. Distinct scaling factors at the land surface and regional atmospheric levels are unraveled using this Bayesian network model. Land surface scaling explains the variability in flood duration as a function of cumulative exceedance index, a new measure that represents the evolution of the flood in the basin. Dynamic atmospheric scaling explains the cumulative exceedance index using the interaction between atmospheric blocking system and the synergistic model of wind divergence and atmospheric water vapor. Our findings underline that the synergy between a large persistent low-pressure blocking system and a higher rate of divergent wind often triggers a long-duration flood, even in the presence of moderate moisture supply in the atmosphere. This condition in turn causes an extremely long-duration flood if the basin-wide cumulative flow prior to the flood event was already high. Thus, this new landatmospheric interaction framework integrates regional flood duration scaling and dynamic atmospheric scaling to enable the coupling of 'horizontal' (for example, streamflow accumulation inside the basin) and 'vertical' flow of information (for example, interrelated land and ocean-atmosphere interactions), providing an improved understanding of the critical forcing of regional hydroclimatic systems. This Bayesian model approach is applied to the Missouri River Basin, which has the largest system of reservoirs in the United States. Our predictive model can aid in decision support systems for the protection of national infrastructure against long-duration flood events.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Coupled flow accumulation and atmospheric blocking govern flood duration

Najibi

Devineni

et al. 2019

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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“…Nevertheless, orographic effects are also understood as a key factor in the maintenance of the GPLLJ. In this regard, Ting and Wang (2006) proved that, when the interaction with the orography is removed from numerical simulations, the GPLLJ vanishes, together with an important amount of the summer precipitation over the central and southerly US.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Among the mechanisms which have been proposed as triggers of the GPLLJ are included a combination of inertial oscillations (Blackadar, 1957) and orographic forcing (Wexler, 1961;Byerle and Paegle, 2003;Pan et al, I. Algarra et al: On the assessment of the moisture transport by the Great Plains low-level jet 2004; Ting and Wang, 2006). In particular, the mechanism of Blackadar (1957) suggests that inertial oscillations near the friction layer can induce the formation of the GPLLJ (Wu and Raman, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the assessment of the moisture transport by the Great Plains low-level jet

et al. 2019

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Abstract. Low-level jets (LLJs) can be defined as wind corridors of anomalously high wind speed values located within the first kilometre of the troposphere. These structures are one of the major meteorological systems in the meridional transport of moisture on a global scale. In this work, we focus on the southerly Great Plains low-level jet, which plays an important role in the moisture transport balance over the central United States. The Gulf of Mexico is the main moisture source for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), which has been identified as a key factor for rainfall modulation over the eastern and central US. The relationship between moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Plains and precipitation has been well documented in previous studies. Nevertheless, a large uncertainty still remains in the quantification of the moisture amount actually carried by the GPLLJ. The main goal of this work is to address this question. For this purpose, a relatively new tool, the regional atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting Model with 3-D water vapour tracers (WRF-WVT; Insua-Costa and Miguez-Macho, 2018) is used together with the Lagrangian model FLEXPART to estimate the load of precipitable water advected within the GPLLJ. Both models were fed with data from ERA Interim. From a climatology of jet intensity over a 37-year period, which follows a Gaussian distribution, we select five cases for study, representing the mean and 1 and 2 standard deviations above and below it. Results show that the jet is responsible for roughly 70 %–80 % of the moisture transport occurring in the southern Great Plains when a jet event occurs. Furthermore, moisture transport by the GPLLJ extends to the north-east US, accounting for 50 % of the total in areas near the Great Lakes. Vertical distributions show the maximum of moisture advected by the GPLLJ at surface levels and maximum values of moisture flux about 500 m above, in coincidence with the wind speed profile.

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“…There is evidence that nocturnal migrants select altitudes during spring migration where the tailwinds provided by the low-level jet are strongest, and select altitudes in the autumn that avoid the headwinds from the low-level jet (Wainwright, Stepanian, & Horton, 2016). Current climate observations (Barandiaran, Wang, & Hilburn, 2013) and projections (Bukovsky, McCrary, Seth, & Mearns, 2017;Cook, Vizy, Launer, & Patricola, 2008;Tang et al, 2017) indicate that the Great Plains nocturnal low-level jet will strengthen and expand northward during this century.…”

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confidence: 99%

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

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Horton

Nilsson

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.

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Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

Cited by 30 publications

References 45 publications

Coupled flow accumulation and atmospheric blocking govern flood duration

Coupled flow accumulation and atmospheric blocking govern flood duration

On the assessment of the moisture transport by the Great Plains low-level jet

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

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