Future changes in five extreme precipitation indices in the lowlands of Romania

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation indices in Romania during three future periods: 2021–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. We investigated changes in future climate based on historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. We compared the values calculated for the three future periods with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961–1990. The historical observation data recorded at 30 weather stations and data extracted from six regional climate model outputs (ALADIN53, CCLM4‐8‐17, RACMO22E, RCA4, REMO2009, and WRF331F) under moderate (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios were employed. Five indices established by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were analysed: consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, and annual total wet‐day precipitation. The series of indices were generated using ClimPACT2 software. Based on bias correction methods, the quality of the modelled data considerably increased, and the errors obtained for the daily precipitation varied in the range of ±0.05 to ±1.22 mm/day. The main findings revealed an increase in three of the extreme precipitation indices based on all models considered compared to the historical period. The most important increase (more than 50%) compared to the historical period was detected in the frequency of very heavy precipitation days and the annual total wet‐day precipitation. They were followed by the heavy precipitation days index. The consecutive dry days index indicated mainly no change or a slow decrease, while inconsistencies among the results of regional climate models were detected for the consecutive wet days index. For all indices except the consecutive dry days index, the ALADIN53 and WRF331F models provided the highest projected values for both scenarios. The dispersion of values obtained as model output for each location was higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5.

Refining the Spatial Scale for Maize Crop Agro-Climatological Suitability Conditions in a Region with Complex Topography towards a Smart and Sustainable Agriculture. Case Study: Central Romania (Cluj County)

“…For Romania, temperature was the meteorological variable with a much more intense and generalized change at the national level over recent decades, compared to other variables such as precipitation or reference evapotranspiration [43,44,[47][48][49]59,60].…”

Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia

“…The many future changes analyses in extreme precipitation were based on the simulations of regional climate models. Most of the regional climate model validations show that they are performing reasonably well in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed precipitation (DeGateano and Castellano, 2017;Fotso-Nguemo et al, 2019;Harpa et al, 2019;Janković et al, 2019;Jiang et al, 2012;Kjellström and Ruosteenoja, 2007;Li et al, 2019;Mihailović et al, 2016). Therefore, they provide a reliable basis for the forecasting of future precipitation and other climate indices.…”

“…The relationship between extreme precipitation and the corresponding temperature is of great importance for predicting precipitation extremes in the future, given the rapid increase of global warming (Yang et al, 2020). The most important conclusion of the studies conducted were the increases in magnitude, frequency, and probability of the occurrence of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events (Alexander et al, 2006;Bocheva et al, 2010;Harpa et al, 2019;Huang, Wang et al, 2018;Janković et al, 2019;Jiang et al, 2012;Kjellström and Ruosteenoja, 2007;Li et al, 2019;Tramblay and Somot, 2018;Vuković et al, 2018). Kjellström and Ruosteenoja (2007) investigated simulated changes in the precipitation over the Baltic Sea at the end of the 21st century and the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter.…”

“…Therefore, there are different studies about climate changes and their environmental impact in Serbia and in the neighboring countries. They are related to extreme temperatures, precipitation, soil temperatures, soil moisture, droughts and wet periods (Bocheva et al, 2010;Trajković, 2013, 2014;Harpa et al, 2019;Janković et al, 2019;Kržič et al, 2011;Mihailović et al, 2016;Pongracz et al, 2011;Unkašević and Tošić, 2011;Vuković et al, 2018). Kržič et al (2011) have shown an overall increase in the surface air temperature of about 2 °C and a decrease in seasonal precipitation sums of about 13 mm in Serbia.…”

Climate Change Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Recharge in Northern Thailand

“…The highest rainfall intensity is in September at 250 mm, approximately, while the lowest is in January at 3 mm. The peak runoff happens in October with around 23,000 and 45,300 million m 3 for Yom and Nan river basins, respectively. The average maximum air temperature increases during January and hits a peak in April at around 31.3 • C, then it is reduced until December at 25 • C. For the average minimum air temperature, it rises from January (18 • C) to April (25 • C), as same as the average maximum air temperature, and slightly decreases to 23.5 • C at October before sharply dropping in November ( 21 of the Nan river basin.…”