Due to the improvement of computation power, in recent decades considerable progress has been made in the development of complex hydrological models. On the other hand, simple conceptual models have also been advanced. Previous studies on rainfall–runoff models have shown that model performance depends very much on the model structure. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the use of a complex hydrological model leads to more accurate results or not and to analyze whether some model structures are more efficient than others. Different configurations of the two models of different complexity, the Système Hydrologique Européen TRANsport (SHETRAN) and Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), were compared and evaluated in simulating flash flood runoff for the small (75.9 km2) Jičinka River catchment in the Czech Republic. The two models were compared with respect to runoff simulations at the catchment outlet and soil moisture simulations within the catchment. The results indicate that the more complex SHETRAN model outperforms the simpler HEC HMS model in case of runoff, but not for soil moisture. It can be concluded that the models with higher complexity do not necessarily provide better model performance, and that the reliability of hydrological model simulations can vary depending on the hydrological variable under consideration.
The knowledge of spatio-temporal dynamics of soil moisture within the catchment is very important for rainfall–runoff modelling in flood forecasting. In this study the comparison between remotely sensed soil moisture and soil moisture estimated from the SHETRAN hydrological model was performed for small and flashy Jičinka River catchment (75.9 km2) in the Czech Republic. Due to a relatively coarse spatial resolution of satellite data, the satellite soil moisture data were downscaled, by applying the method developed by Qu et al. (2015). The sub-grid variability of soil moisture was estimated on the basis of the mean soil moisture for the grid cell and the known hydraulic soil properties. The SHETRAN model was calibrated and verified to the observed streamflow hydrographs at the catchment outlet. The good correlation between the two different soil moisture information was obtained according to the majority of applied criteria. The results of the evaluation criteria indicate that the downscaled remotely sensed soil moisture data can be used as additional criteria for the calibration and validation of hydrological models for small catchments and can contribute to a better estimation of parameters, to reduce uncertainties of hydrological models and improve runoff simulations.
This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation during the 21st century in Central Serbia. The changes are investigated on the basis of historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. The historical observation data were recorded at 18 synoptic weather stations in Central Serbia and modelled data were extracted from the regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) under the A1B scenario. The average number of days in a year with precipition ≥ 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (R20, R30, R40 and R50), the share of daily precipitation above the 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (P20, P30, P40, P50) in the total annual precipitation and the monthly distribution of these heavy daily precipitation are used as indices of changes in extreme precipitation. These indices, for the three periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, are determined and compared with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961–1990. The results have shown that the main changes in extreme precipitation in Central Serbia will be in their spatial distribution, and the uncertainty of the occurrence of extreme events will decrease. In the future the increase will be more pronounced than the decrease of these indices. We strongly emphasize the benefit of this paper for both the prevention of natural disasters in the study area and for the improvement of the regional climate model.
Извод: Хидролошки модели су веома важни за ефикасно управљање водним ресурсима на нивоу слива. У овом раду је приказана употреба софтверског пакета HEC-HMS-а за моделирање отицаја са слива Луковске реке. За потребе моделирања коришћени су подаци током пет поплавних таласа осмотрених на хидролошкој станици Мерћез на Луковској реци. Разматрани поплавни таласи су из два различита временска периода и из две сезоне, т.ј. са различитим доминантним механизмима генерисања отицаја. Стога су поплавни таласи подељени у групе "садашњост" и "прошлост", и у групе "пролеће" и "лето". Оптималне вредности параметара за сваку групу таласа су добијени осредњавањем оптималних параметара за појединачне таласе унутар групе. Да би се проценила преносивост модела, т.ј. његова примењивост за симулације поплавних таласа који нису разматрани у калибрацији модела, извршена је унакрсна валидација. Резултати показују да се параметри модела разликују за појединачне таласе и групе таласа, и да пренос параметара генерално доводи до значајних грешака у пиковима и запреминама хидрограма, са изузетком симулације летњих догађаја са параметрима из групе "пролеће". На основу ових резултата дате су препоруке за моделирање отицаја од појединачних епизода.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.