Future Change Using the CMIP5 MME and Best Models: I. Near and Long Term Future Change of Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia

Future Change Using the CMIP5 MME and Best Models: II. The Thermodynamic and Dynamic Analysis on Near and Long-Term Future Climate Change over East Asia

“…2d, h). 장기 미래는 단기 미래보다 육지와 해양에서 강수의 증가와 감소가 더 강화되는 것으로 전망하였다 (Moon et al, 2014). 이는 MFC의 감소가 단기 미래보다 장기 미래에 더 강화되어 해양 에서 강수 감소가 더 강하게 나타나는 원인이 될 수 있다 (Figs.…”

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Abstract The changes in thermodynamic and dynamic aspects on near (2025~2049) and long-term (2075~2099) future climate changes between the historical run (1979~2005) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 20 coupled models which employed in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over East Asia (EA) and the Korean Peninsula are investigated as an extended study for Moon et al (2014) study noted that the 20 models' multi-model ensemble (MME) and best five models' multi-model ensemble (B5MME) have a different increasing trend of precipitation during the boreal winter and summer, in spite of a similar increasing trend of surface air temperature, especially over the Korean Peninsula. Comparing the MME and B5MME, the dynamic factor (the convergence of mean moisture by anomalous wind) and the thermodynamic factor (the convergence of anomalous moisture by mean wind) in terms of moisture flux convergence are analyzed.

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