Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

Abstract

There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally-based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice los has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead-lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants, and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities

Arctic sea ice in transformation: A review of recent observed changes and impacts on biology and human activity

“…Rogers et al . [] evaluated several of the AR4 models and found that model performance relative to the observed historical record varied depending the sector analyzed, suggesting that selection of models should be targeted for the region of interest. It also points the way toward possible enhancements to improve models throughout the Arctic.…”

Arctic marginal ice zone trending wider in summer and narrower in winter

“…MIZ width is a fundamental length scale for polar ecosystem dynamics and climate dynamics [Wadhams, 2000]. The width of the MIZ is a buffer zone that protects the stable morphology of the inner ice from wave penetration [Squire, 2007], represents the distance over which the atmospheric boundary layer converts to its stable polar form [Shaw et al, 1991], establishes an important spatial dimension for marine habitat selection [Ribic et al, 1991], and impacts human accessibility to the Arctic [Rogers et al, 2012].…”

Seasonal variation in Arctic marine mammal acoustic detection in the northern Bering Sea

“…Sea ice coverage data extracted from AMSR2 daily rasters showed seasonal presence of sea ice (defined here as occurring between first and last day with average sea concentration >15%; Rogers, Walsh, Rupp, Brigham, & Sfraga, ) during the winter at all monitoring stations (Bering Strait: 3 December 2012–1 June 2013; Gambell: 16 December 2014–22 April 2015, and 9 December 2015–9 May 2016; Savoonga: 20 December 2014–12 May 2015). Ice concentration at Gambell showed variation between the winters during which acoustic monitoring was conducted at this location.…”