From the Streets to the Mountains: The Dynamics of Transition from a Protest Wave to an Insurgency in Kashmir

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamics of transition from a peaceful protest wave to a violent insurgency. It examines the causal path leading to a major shift in the intensity of a protest wave and argues that the transition is the product of the interactions between the dissidents, the state, and external actors. By studying the protest wave in Kashmir (1979-88), it identifies state repression and external support as the key factors driving the transition process. Time series analysis is used to analyze the original empirical evidence collected through content analysis. By providing a comprehensive understanding of the origins of the insurgency in Kashmir, this study shows that protest waves and civil wars are intimately linked.

Terrorism, counterterrorism and ‘the rule of law’: state repression and ‘shoot-to-kill’ in Northern Ireland

“…These may be different behaviors, but they are all political behaviors (Gamson 1990(Gamson [1975Tilly 1978;Tilly and Tarrow 2007, pp. 9-11, 69-87, 136-61;Demirel-Pegg 2014). Based on this case study, scholars should assume something similar with respect to state repression.…”

Continuidades y rupturas de la protesta universitaria en el Chile de la posdictadura (1990-2014)

“…En primer término, y a partir de un estudio pionero, Koopmans (1993) identificó que los movimientos sociales tienden a desarrollarse a través de olas o ciclos de protesta, en los que se intercalan periodos de incremento con periodos de baja conflictividad. Mientras en los momentos álgidos de conflictividad la protesta se difunde sectorial y geográficamente, crece la participación, se fortalecen los marcos de sentido compartidos y aumenta considerablemente la interacción entre movilizados y oponentes; en los periodos de declive o estabilización de la conflictividad (de duración variable y que pueden a su vez conducir al inicio de un nuevo momento de auge de la actividad de protesta), en cambio, se produce un debilitamiento de los movimientos sociales y una reestructuración de sus demandas (Tarrow, 1997;Demirel-Pegg, 2014).…”

From Civil Resistance to Civil War: Nonstrategic Mechanisms of Militarization in the Syrian Uprising

“…Based on quantitative data from the protest waves (1979-88), Demirel-Pegg argues that "protesters are more likely to substitute nonviolent tactics with violent ones, particularly when directly and indiscriminately repressed by the police" and adds that foreign support of rebels in the form of weapons supply further militarized resistance. 31 Demirel-Pegg briefly mentions "negative sentiments caused by the state's violent acts," but otherwise focuses on the strategic reasons why repression causes groups to change strategy, that is, because it raises the cost of nonviolent mobilization.…”