From the geodynamic aspect to earthquake potential hazard analysis of Liwa city and its surrounding

Triyoso, Wahyu; Suwondo, Aris

doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05705-0

Cited by 6 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Furthermore, the PSHF before large earthquake events is estimated at the three-point observation as a function of b(t). The PSHF parameter calculation is based on Triyoso and Suwondo (2022), where the starting locking depth at the top is 5 km (The 2017PuSGen, 2017. In this study, the probabilistic seismic hazard is calculated by referring to the GMPE recommendation results of Triyoso and Suwondo (2022) in which, based on our present knowledge, the GMPE Zhao et al (2006) tends to fit better, especially for the Sumatra subduction zone; thus, we refer to it.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The PSHF parameter calculation is based on Triyoso and Suwondo (2022), where the starting locking depth at the top is 5 km (The 2017PuSGen, 2017. In this study, the probabilistic seismic hazard is calculated by referring to the GMPE recommendation results of Triyoso and Suwondo (2022) in which, based on our present knowledge, the GMPE Zhao et al (2006) tends to fit better, especially for the Sumatra subduction zone; thus, we refer to it. Referring to Triyoso and Suwondo (2022), the maximum radius distance of about 100 km with a magnitude range of 6.0-9.0 is used in PSHF estimation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study area was gridded into 10 × 10 km cell sizes, and the surface strain rate was estimated. First, we calculated each cell's horizontal crustal strain rate using previous studies' procedures (Triyoso et al, 2020;Triyoso and Suwondo, 2022) and the least square collocation (LSC) method. Then, the local covariance functions based on the horizontal surface displacement data are used to estimate the horizontal surface displacement of each grid or cell in the study area.…”

Section: Geodetic Modeling: Sh Max Rate Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where P k (m ≥ m (a o , R k )) is the annual PE of earthquakes in the kth grid or cell, m(a o , R k ) is the magnitude in the ith source grid that would produce a PGA estimated of a o or larger at the site, and R k is the distance between the site and the source grid. The PSHF parameter calculation is based on Triyoso and Suwondo (2022), where the starting locking depth at the top is 5 km (The 2017 PuSGen, 2017). Following Triyoso and Suwondo (2022), the focal depth value is estimated from half the seismogenic thickness of about 10 km; thus, the focal depth used is 15 km.…”

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Function Estimation: Ground Mot...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The PSHF parameter calculation is based on Triyoso and Suwondo (2022), where the starting locking depth at the top is 5 km (The 2017 PuSGen, 2017). Following Triyoso and Suwondo (2022), the focal depth value is estimated from half the seismogenic thickness of about 10 km; thus, the focal depth used is 15 km. The function m(a o , R k ) is the GMPE relation.…”

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Function Estimation: Ground Mot...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic seismic hazard function based on spatiotemporal earthquake likelihood simulation and Akaike information criterion: The PSHF study around off the west coast of Sumatra Island before large earthquake events

Triyoso

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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The probabilistic seismic hazard function (PSHF) before large earthquake events based on the hypothesis earthquake forecast algorithm using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is performed in this study. The motivation for using the AIC is to better understand the reliability model used to construct the PSHF. The PSHF as the function of the b-value is calculated based on a 5-year window length with a 1-year moving window (instantaneous PSHF) before a large earthquake event. The AIC is calculated based on the likelihood of success and failure using shallow earthquake catalog data around the west coast of Sumatra Island. The probability of occurrence defines the success criteria as more significant than the average probability of greater than or equal to the given magnitude; otherwise, it is defined as failure. Seismic potency has been determined based on the likelihood of an earthquake occurring in several decades or a hundred years. The seismicity rate model is developed based on the integrated data of pre-seismic shallow crustal movement data and the shallow crustal earthquake catalog data. Furthermore, the AIC is calculated based on the likelihood of success and failure as a function of b(t). The b(t) is the change in the b-value as a time function estimated based on shallow earthquake data from 1963 to 2016. In addition, the AIC before M7.9 of 2000, M8.5 of 2007, and M7.8 of 2010 is assessed. The δAIC is then introduced as a function of (AICmodel–AICreference) during the observation time. The positive δAIC implies that the likelihood of having a large earthquake is more significant; otherwise, it is smaller. By plotting the time of observation versus δAIC and the PSHF estimated as the function of b(t), we could identify a large positive gradient and increase the PSHF at each certain probability exceedance (PE) level before the great earthquake event. It consistently happened for the three events that were evaluated. It suggested that the results of this study might be very beneficial for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and seismic mitigation realization.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Geodetic Modeling: Sh Max Rate Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Function Estimation: Ground Mot...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Function Estimation: Ground Mot...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic seismic hazard function based on spatiotemporal earthquake likelihood simulation and Akaike information criterion: The PSHF study around off the west coast of Sumatra Island before large earthquake events

Triyoso

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Cumulative Liquefaction Susceptibility Index to Estimate Integrated Liquefaction at Bengkulu City, Indonesia

Mase

2024

Transp. Infrastruct. Geotech.

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Applying the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) in earthquake spatial forecasting: a case study on probabilistic seismic hazard function (PSHF) estimation in the Sumatra subduction zone

Triyoso

2024

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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From the geodynamic aspect to earthquake potential hazard analysis of Liwa city and its surrounding

Cited by 6 publications

References 55 publications

Probabilistic seismic hazard function based on spatiotemporal earthquake likelihood simulation and Akaike information criterion: The PSHF study around off the west coast of Sumatra Island before large earthquake events

Probabilistic seismic hazard function based on spatiotemporal earthquake likelihood simulation and Akaike information criterion: The PSHF study around off the west coast of Sumatra Island before large earthquake events

Cumulative Liquefaction Susceptibility Index to Estimate Integrated Liquefaction at Bengkulu City, Indonesia

Applying the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) in earthquake spatial forecasting: a case study on probabilistic seismic hazard function (PSHF) estimation in the Sumatra subduction zone

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