From Rallies to Riots: Why Some Protests Become Violent

Ives, Brandon; Lewis, Jacob S.

doi:10.1177/0022002719887491

Cited by 31 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Proponents of political change invest energy in arguing, demanding or organizing political action in the form of demonstrations, strikes and revolutions. Opponents of change, in contrast, ignore or reject demands, shut down demonstrations, organize strikebreakers and imprison (presumed) revolutionaries [ 5 , 6 ]. Examples include the recent debate in the UK between politicians arguing in favour of changing EU-membership (leave) and those defending the status quo (remain), the conflicts coinciding with ‘Black Lives Matter’ protests around the world between those calling to abolish monuments to colonialists and those wishing to defend their current status as heroes, and the polarizing conflicts across Europe between reactionary politicians trying to revert back to traditional values and socio-cultural practices, a backward change that more established political parties seek to prevent [ 35 ].…”

Section: Political Conflict As a Game Of Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Politics often revolve around opposing parties trying to obtain something that others have, such as wealth and influence, or preventing something that others want, such as a change in governmental policy or social practice [ 1 , 2 ]. Although political conflict can take the form of constructive debate and mutual gains negotiation [ 1 – 4 ], it often involves contentious strategies that aim to advance one's own group interests at the expense of another group [ 2 , 5 , 6 ]. Such contentious behaviour can be personally risky, like taking part in a strike or demonstration, and is collectively costly [ 3 , 4 , 7 , 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Political games of attack and defence

Dreu

Pliskin

Rojek-Giffin

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Political conflicts often revolve around changing versus defending a status quo . We propose to capture the dynamics between proponents and opponents of political change in terms of an asymmetric game of attack and defence with its equilibrium in mixed strategies. Formal analyses generate predictions about effort expended on revising and protecting the status quo , the form and function of false signalling and cheap talk, how power differences impact conflict intensity and the likelihood of status quo revision. Laboratory experiments on the neurocognitive and hormonal foundations of attack and defence reveal that out-of-equilibrium investments in attack emerge because of non-selfish preferences, limited capacity to compute costs and benefits and optimistic beliefs about the chances of winning from one's rival. We conclude with implications for the likelihood of political change and inertia, and discuss the role of ideology in political games of attack and defence. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The political brain: neurocognitive and computational mechanisms’.

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Section: Political Conflict As a Game Of Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Political games of attack and defence

Dreu

Pliskin

Rojek-Giffin

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The actual or perceived impression that these policies will lead to unequal burdens, especially among groups that already are experiencing the effects of inequality and marginalization, may also be a relevant intersection of climate policy, inequality, and populism (e.g., The Yellow Vests movement). Whether anti‐government protest movements result in major armed conflict often depends as much or more on the level of repression by police and security forces as on the nature of the underlying grievances motivating collective action (Ives & Lewis, 2020 ).…”

Section: Climate Policy Its Consequences and The Potential For Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda

Gilmore

Buhaug

2021

WIREs Climate Change

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Climate policies will need to incentivize transformative societal changes if they are to achieve emission reductions consistent with 1.5°C temperature targets. To contribute to efforts for aligning climate policy with broader societal goals, specifically those related to sustainable development, we identify the effects of climate mitigation policy on aspects of socioeconomic development that are known determinants of conflict and evaluate the plausibility and importance of potential pathways to armed conflict and political violence. Conditional on preexisting societal tensions and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, we isolate effects on economic performance, income and livelihood, food and energy prices, and land tenure as most likely to increase conflict risks. Climate policy designs may be critical to moderate these risks as different designs can promote more favorable societal outcomes such as equity and inclusion. Coupling research with careful monitoring and evaluation of the intermediate societal effects at early stages of policy implementation will be a critical part of learning and moderating potential conflict risks. Importantly, better characterizing the future conflict risks under climate policy allows for a more comprehensive comparison to the conflict risk if mitigation is not implemented and graver climate damages are experienced. This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation

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“…First, politically excluded ethnic groups often face repression for engaging in nonviolent protests. State repression is a major hindrance to nonviolent protest movements (Davenport, 2015) and can derail nonviolence through calculated escalations to violence over time (Pinckney, 2018) as well as the nonstrategic escalation to violence in a single protest event (Ives & Lewis, 2020). While states face major costs for repressing nonviolent protestors (Martin, 2007), the cost of repressing an excluded ethnic group is lower compared to repressing other protest movements.…”

Section: The Interaction Of Education and Political Exclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greed, grievance, or graduates? Why do men rebel?

Ives

Breslawski

2021

Journal of Peace Research

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Education is widely known for its positive effect on conventional politics and nonviolent protest as well as its suppressive effect on violence. However, recent studies have connected education to violence through its effect on relative deprivation and frustration–aggression mechanisms. We address these divergent findings by presenting a theory of the conditional effect that education has on violence. To do so, we build on literature addressing education’s positive association with political participation, such as voting and protests, and question how this relationship translates to contexts in which conventional and nonviolent channels are unlikely to be effective – specifically, in cases of politically excluded ethnic groups. We argue that education increases ethnic group members’ resources and desire to address grievances. Yet, because the ethnic group is politically excluded, opportunities for conventional politics and nonviolent protest are limited. Educated ethnic group members are limited in political options, and are thus more likely to address their grievances through the support of rebel groups, increasing the probability of violence. Violence then occurs in localities where members of a politically excluded ethnic group are located and where those members have higher levels of education. Using geo-spatial data and statistical analysis, we demonstrate that education has divergent effects on violence in areas populated by politically excluded versus politically included ethnic groups in Africa and Central America. Areas with highly educated politically excluded ethnic group members are the most likely to experience violent events.

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From Rallies to Riots: Why Some Protests Become Violent

Cited by 31 publications

References 55 publications

Political games of attack and defence

Political games of attack and defence

Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda

Greed, grievance, or graduates? Why do men rebel?

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