From Dissent to Democracy

Abstract

Under what conditions will successful nonviolent revolutions lead to democratization? While the scholarly literature has shown that nonviolent resistance has a positive effect on a country’s level of democracy, little research to date has disaggregated this population to explain which cases of successful nonviolent resistance lead to democracy and which do not. This book presents a theory of democratization in transitions initiated by nonviolent resistance based on the successful resolution of two central strategic challenges: maintaining high transitional mobilization and avoiding institutionally destructive maximalism. I test the theory, first, on a data set of every transition from authoritarian rule in the post–World War II period and, second, with three in-depth case studies informed by interviews with key decision-makers in Nepal, Zambia, and Brazil. The testing supports the importance of high mobilization and low maximalism. Both have strong, consistent effects on democratization after nonviolent resistance.

Research Note Civil Resistance in the Streetlight: Replicating and Assessing Evidence on Nonviolent Effectiveness

“…Instead of painting civil resistance effectiveness in broad strokes, academic references and policy debates need to adapt to the increasing level of uncertainty cast by 12 a better understanding of multifaceted causal mechanisms, data limitations, and deeply endogenous processes. While perceptions of general success thus find more limited empirical support, civil resistance' beneficial effect on more specific outcomes, like its ability to facilitate democratization and foster more durable democratic institutions, is better documented (Pinckney 2020;Lambach et al 2020;Orazani and Leidner 2019;Kim and Kroeger 2019). Taking a step back and reviewing the most-cited comparative evidence on civil resistance success, this research note adds to this important discussion, corroborating that an unconditional narrative of civil resistance effectiveness is unlikely to be tenable.…”

“…At most, these results may be seen as indicative of there being no difference in effectiveness between violent and nonviolent approaches, making civil resistance a viable alternative to violence (Helvey 2004;Sharp 2003. Moreover, effectiveness of civil resistance in achieving immediate policy goals is different from effectiveness in inducing long-term change, like facilitating transition processes to sustained democracy (Chenoweth 2021;Pinckney 2020;Lambach et al 2020;Bayer, Bethke and Lambach 2016;Celestino and Gleditsch 2013;. In addition, and as I will discuss below, the aggregate nature of the replicated analyses, both conceptually and in their unit of observation, may impede detection of relevant patterns (cf., .…”

“…Seminal research on civil resistance 1 finds that nonviolent tactics significantly outperform violent tactics in generating campaign success Stephan and Chenoweth 2008). Research of the past decade builds on this finding, with recent studies showing nonviolent resistance campaigns to have better prospects for swaying public opinion, and for generating longterm democratization, compared to violent campaigns (e.g., Pinckney 2020;Lambach et al 2020;Orazani and Leidner 2019;Kim and Kroeger 2019). Meanwhile, an increasing number of studies add important qualification, identifying contexts in which nonviolent tactics may not be more effective in reaching campaign goals (Manekin and Mitts 2022;Pischedda 2020;Chenoweth 2020).…”

Guest Editors’ introduction: Nonviolent resistance and its discontents

“…As such, escalating or diversifying movement tactics and claims affects the ability of various social groups to build and maintain legitimacy among various constituencies and effectively challenge the status quo. More generally, problems of coalitionbuilding and claims-making can undermine longerterm successes of NR and provide openings for counter-revolutionary forces to seize power (Beissinger, 2012;Pinckney, 2020).…”

Activists Against Autocrats: TSMO Networks and Democratic Diffusion

“…15 Several TSMOs have won the Nobel Peace Prize, including Amnesty International in 1977 (Clark 2001), International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War in 1985, and The International Campaign to Ban Landmines in 1997. 16 On the importance of mass action in democratization, see for example Chenoweth and Stephan (2011), Celestino and Gleditsch (2013), Bayer et al (2016), andPinckney (2020). make decision makers less likely to repress challenges from below, TSMOs should strengthen civil society, increase associational activity (Schofer and Longhofer 2011), and make the threat or use of civic action and political dissent more credible.…”