‘Free Flight’ for Air Traffic in Europe

Abstract

In an earlier study, the author attempted to give some quantitative estimates of the problems that free flow might face in Europe. The study was based on a traffic sample from the Eurocontrol Route Charges Office for a busy day in 1991. More recently, they generously made available a similar sample for a day in 1997. Using this new data, the study has been extended to cover wider aspects of the free flow problem. The central problem is that of ensuring safety. This will require a mechanism to detect collision threats and safely to resolve the problems. Possible tools are ground-based surveillance and/or airborne systems. This paper will use computer modelling to predict the loads that these detection and resolution systems must face.

Free-Flight in Europe, Problems and Solutions

“…The discussion that follows will centre on the conflict problems predicted for freeflight in Western Europe (Ratcliffe, 1999). For this purpose, a conflict will be said to arise when it is not possible to guarantee that the separation standard will be satisfied.…”

“…The author has, more recently, had doubts about the validity of the ' Poisson process ' assumption used in (Ratcliffe, 1999) to derive estimates of the probability of multiple intrusions. Table 2 gives, for aircraft cruising at levels between FL280 and FL380, the probability that aircraft involved in the least fortunate conflict arising in the model will experience 1, 2, 3 or 4 intrusions.…”