Four Global Catastrophic Risks – A Personal View

Abstract

Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) affect a larger than hemispheric area and produce death tolls of many millions and/or economic losses greater than several trillion USD. Here I explore the biophysical, social-economic, demographic and cultural strands of four global catastrophic risks – sea level rise, a VEI 7 eruption, a pandemic, and a geomagnetic storm – one human-exacerbated at the least, one geological, one biological in large part, and one from space. Durations of these biophysical events range from a day or two to more than 100 years and the hazards associated range from none to numerous. Each of the risks has an average return period of no more than a few hundred years and lie within a range where many regulators ordinarily demand efforts in the case of less extreme events at enhancing resilience. Losses produced by GCRs and other natural hazards are usually assessed in terms of human mortality or dollars but many less tangible losses are at least as significant. Despite the varying durations, biophysical characteristics, and the wide array of potential consequences, the aftermath at global (and at more granular scales) can be summarised by one of four potential futures. While this assessment considers the present and the near future (the Anthropocene), much of this appraisal applies also to global catastrophic risks in the Early Holocene.

Disaster early-warning systems are ‘doomed to fail’ — only collective action can plug the gaps

“…Currently, only about 35% of Earth's historically active volcanoes are continuously monitored 6 . Similarly, there is little coordination of warning systems for landslides, earthquakes or severe geomagnetic storms -all of which pose catastrophic risks 7 -or for emerging risks, such as wildfire-generated thunderstorms 8 .…”

Natural Global Catastrophic Risks

“…Electrical surges in power grids could cause them to shut down with consequences to our water, sanitation, food and energy supplies, and health systems, and satellites and communication networks could be damaged, with disruption to global transport and trade leading to severe impacts on our global economic, social, and political systems. 49 For events like geomagnetic storms and coronal mass ejection events, they can be detected in advance of their arrival on Earth, meaning we could have the time to prepare and respond so we can reduce the potential impacts, such as shutting down electricity grids temporarily to avoid disruption. However, without adequate preparation and resilience measures put in place in advance, and considerations for the systemic nature of such risks, we remain vulnerable to the cascading consequences of such events.…”

The Impact of COVID-19 on Values and Religiosity in a Multi-Ethnic Population

“…Even with limited spreading, COVID-19 caused millions of deaths worldwide leading to the pandemic being classified as a “global catastrophic risk” (GCR). 1 The detrimental effect of COVID-19 should not be underplayed; however, researchers should acknowledge COVID-19’s incidental positive effects to avoid an exaggeratedly negative perspective of the pandemic.…”