Fossil Fuel Subsidies and the Global Climate Regime

Asselt, Harro van; Merrill, Laura; Kulovesi, Kati

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2934919

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…Estimates by the Overseas Development Institute and Oil Change International demonstrate that G20 country commitments, in their first five years, accomplished little (Bast, Doukas, Pickard, van de Burg, & Whitley, 2015), though Smith and Urpelainen (2017) argue that these commitments nonetheless increase reputational costs associated with policy reversal. While there is certainly evidence of advocacy manifesting change in some contexts, the degree to which it can overcome the political economic challenges of FFSR is less clear (van Asselt et al, 2018).…”

Section: The Ffsr Challengementioning

confidence: 99%

Credibility dilemmas under the Paris agreement: explaining fossil fuel subsidy reform references in INDCs

Elliott

Bernstein

Hoffmann

2022

Int Environ Agreements

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Fossil fuel subsidies are a market distortion commonly identified as an obstacle to decarbonization. Yet due to trenchant political economic risks, reform attempts can be fraught for governments. Despite these concerns, an institutionally and economically diverse group of states included references to fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) under the Paris Agreement. What conditions might explain why some states reference politically risky reforms within treaty commitments, while most others would not? We argue that the Article 4 process under the Paris Agreement creates a “credibility dilemma” for states–articulating ambitious emissions reduction targets while also defining national climate plans engenders a need to seek out appropriate policy ideas that can justify overarching goals to international audiences. Insomuch as particular norms are institutionalized and made salient in international politics, a window of opportunity is opened: issue advocates can “activate” norms by demonstrating how related policies can make commitments credible. Using mixed methods, we find support for this argument. We identify contextual factors advancing FFSR in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, including norm institutionalization in regimes and international organization programs as well as salience-boosting climate diplomacy. Further, we find correspondences between countries targeted by transnational policy advocates and FFSR references in INDCs, building on the momentum in international politics more generally. Though drafting INDCs and NDCs is a government-owned process, the results suggest that understanding their content requires examining international norms alongside domestic circumstances.

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Section: The Ffsr Challengementioning

confidence: 99%