Credibility dilemmas under the Paris agreement: explaining fossil fuel subsidy reform references in INDCs

Abstract

Fossil fuel subsidies are a market distortion commonly identified as an obstacle to decarbonization. Yet due to trenchant political economic risks, reform attempts can be fraught for governments. Despite these concerns, an institutionally and economically diverse group of states included references to fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) under the Paris Agreement. What conditions might explain why some states reference politically risky reforms within treaty commitments, while most others would not? We argue that the Article 4 process under the Paris Agreement creates a “credibility dilemma” for states–articulating ambitious emissions reduction targets while also defining national climate plans engenders a need to seek out appropriate policy ideas that can justify overarching goals to international audiences. Insomuch as particular norms are institutionalized and made salient in international politics, a window of opportunity is opened: issue advocates can “activate” norms by demonstrating how related policies can make commitments credible. Using mixed methods, we find support for this argument. We identify contextual factors advancing FFSR in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, including norm institutionalization in regimes and international organization programs as well as salience-boosting climate diplomacy. Further, we find correspondences between countries targeted by transnational policy advocates and FFSR references in INDCs, building on the momentum in international politics more generally. Though drafting INDCs and NDCs is a government-owned process, the results suggest that understanding their content requires examining international norms alongside domestic circumstances.

Failure of International Agreements in Confronting Environmental Crimes: A Case Study of the Climate Crisis in Vanuatu

“…The first article is a journal article by Shivanna (2022) with the title "Climate change and its impact on biodiversity and human welfare" to expand the explanation related to the impact of drastic climate change that is relevant to the recent climate crisis because this article was written in 2022. Then the second article is a journal article by Elliott et al (2022) with the title "Credibility dilemmas under the Paris Agreement: Explaining fossil fuel subsidy reform references in INDCs," which explains the reference to fossil fuel subsidy reform in international agreements related to climate change, namely Intended Nationally Determined Contributions which are still related to the Paris Agreement, which is the basis of the fossil e-ISSN: 2723-6695  p-ISSN: 2723-6595 fuel non-proliferation agreement. The third article is a journal article by Newell et al (2022) with the title "Building a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty: Key elements" where this article analyzes the efforts that have been made, both by countries that have approved this treaty to international organizations or institutions and member communities.…”

Sustainable petrol subsidy program in Malaysia

“…On a global scale, fossil fuel consumption subsidies doubled from the previous year to an all-time high of USD 1 trillion in 2022 (Elliott, Bernstein, & Hoffmann, 2022). In Malaysia, the government is expected to spend an additional Ringgit Malaysia 4.22 billion this year on the petrol subsidy due to increasing glob al oil prices.…”

The Equity Dimensions of Anti-fossil Fuel Norms

“…Moreover, an informal group called the Friends of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform (FFFSR), consisting of several non-G20 countries, has sought to help diffuse the emerging norm of fossil fuel subsidy reform by seeking to advance discussions on the issue in forums such as the UNFCCC and the World Trade Organization (van Asselt & Verkuijl, 2021). In the UNFCCC context, 15 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) contained references to fossil fuel subsidy reform (Elliott et al, 2022), while the Glasgow Climate Pact for the first time incorporates a reference to it. By one estimate, 50 countries made efforts to reform fossil fuel subsidies between 2015 and 2018 (Merrill and Quintas.…”