2020
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3702303
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Forward Looking Loan Provisions: Credit Supply and Risk-Taking

Abstract: We show corporate-level real, financial, and (bank) risk-taking effects associated with calculating loan provisions based on expected-rather than incurred-credit losses. For identification, we exploit unique features of a Colombian reform and supervisory, matched loan-level data. The regulatory change induces a dramatic increase in provisions. Banks tighten all new lending conditions, adversely affecting borrowing-firms, with stronger effects for risky-firms. Moreover, to minimize provisioning, more affected (… Show more

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Cited by 5 publications
(6 citation statements)
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“…In line with the results in Table 2, we find that loan rates of the new credit granted by banks with higher credit risk exposition react more to monetary policy changes than those for banks with less credit exposition (column 4). That is, banks with risky portfolios increase/reduce their loan rates in tightening/loosening periods, compared banks with less risky portfolios (consistent with the view that banks with higher credit risk exposition seem to be more procyclical (Laeven and Majnoni, 2003;Huizinga and Laeven, 2019;Morais et al, 2020).…”
Section: 1the Bank Lending Channel Of Monetary Policysupporting
confidence: 58%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…In line with the results in Table 2, we find that loan rates of the new credit granted by banks with higher credit risk exposition react more to monetary policy changes than those for banks with less credit exposition (column 4). That is, banks with risky portfolios increase/reduce their loan rates in tightening/loosening periods, compared banks with less risky portfolios (consistent with the view that banks with higher credit risk exposition seem to be more procyclical (Laeven and Majnoni, 2003;Huizinga and Laeven, 2019;Morais et al, 2020).…”
Section: 1the Bank Lending Channel Of Monetary Policysupporting
confidence: 58%
“…Note that the credit expansion in recent years has not been accompanied by a rising trend in the doubtful loans' ratio (Figure 2). This downward trend in the banks' credit risk can be attributed to more robust macroprudential policies in the domestic avenue (i.e., loan provisions based on expected losses rather than on incurred losses) and oversight of the financial system's constituents, which ultimately have led them to tightening lending standards and to the putting in place of necessary controls to handle the different risks these institutions face (see, Gómez et al, 2020;Morais et al, 2020). Overall, our descriptive analysis suggests that domestic banks show a higher procyclical behaviour than international banks and are more sensitive to monetary policy changes.…”
Section: Datamentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In line with the results in Table 2, we find that loan rates of the new credit granted by banks with higher credit risk exposition react more to monetary policy changes than those for banks with less credit exposition (column 4). That is, banks with risky portfolios increase/reduce their loan rates in tightening/loosening periods, compared banks with less risky portfolios (consistent with the view that banks with higher credit risk exposition seem to be more procyclical (Laeven and Majnoni, 2003;Huizinga and Laeven, 2019;Morais et al, 2020).…”
Section: 1the Bank Lending Channel Of Monetary Policysupporting
confidence: 58%
“…In addition, in May 2007, there was a change in the rule for computing banks' loan losses provisions, based on expected rather than incurred losses. Throughout the paper, we show that our findings are not significantly affected by such policy change (whose effects are investigated by López, Tenjo andZárate, 2014, andMorais et al, 2020). corporate loans, with information on loan volume and other loan characteristics.…”
Section: Data and Summary Statisticsmentioning
confidence: 65%