We identify the international credit channel of monetary policy by analyzing the universe of corporate loans in Mexico, matched with firm and bank balance-sheet data, and by exploiting foreign monetary policy shocks, given the large presence of European and U.S. banks in Mexico. We find that a softening of foreign monetary policy increases the supply of credit of foreign banks to Mexican firms. Each regional policy shock affects supply via their respective banks (for example, U.K. monetary policy affects credit supply in Mexico via U.K. banks), in turn implying strong real effects, with substantially larger elasticities from monetary rates than QE. Moreover, low foreign monetary policy rates and expansive QE increase disproportionally more the supply of credit to borrowers with higher ex ante loan rates-reach-for-yield-and with substantially higher ex post loan defaults, thus suggesting an international risk-taking channel of monetary policy. All in all, the results suggest that foreign QE increases risk-taking in emerging markets more than it improves the real outcomes of firms.JEL codes: E44, E52, E58, G01, G21, G28.
La serie de Documentos de Investigación del Banco de México divulga resultados preliminares de trabajos de investigación económica realizados en el Banco de México con la finalidad de propiciar el intercambio y debate de ideas. El contenido de los Documentos de Investigación, así como las conclusiones que de ellos se derivan, son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no reflejan necesariamente las del Banco de México.The Working Papers series of Banco de México disseminates preliminary results of economic research conducted at Banco de México in order to promote the exchange and debate of ideas. The views and conclusions presented in the Working Papers are exclusively the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Banco de México.Abstract: We identify the international credit channel of monetary policy by analyzing the universe of corporate loans in Mexico matched with firm and bank data, and by exploiting foreign monetary policy shocks in a country with a large presence of European and U.S. banks. The robust results show that a softening of foreign monetary policy increases the supply of credit of foreign banks to Mexican firms. Each regional policy shock mainly affects supply via their respective banks, in turn implying strong real effects, with lower elasticities from QE. The impact of low foreign monetary policy rates and expansive QE is stronger on local borrowers with higher ex-ante loan rates -reach-for-yield-and with higher ex-post loan defaults, thus suggesting an international risk-taking channel of monetary policy. All in all, the results suggest spillovers of core-countries´ monetary policies on emerging markets, both in the foreign monetary softening and tightening part.Resumen: Identificamos el canal de crédito internacional de la política monetaria mediante el análisis del universo de préstamos corporativos en México en conjunto con datos de firmas y bancos, y explotando choques de política monetaria internacional en un país en el que la presencia de bancos europeos y estadounidenses es importante. Los resultados del análisis muestran que un relajamiento de la política monetaria en el exterior aumenta la oferta de crédito por parte de bancos extranjeros a las empresas mexicanas, principalmente a través de sus respectivos bancos, implicando, a su vez, efectos reales significativos. El impacto de bajas tasas de política monetaria internacional y expansiones en el QE es mayor para las empresas que enfrentan tasas de interés ex-ante más altas y mayores tasas de impago ex-post, sugiriendo la existencia de un canal de toma de riesgos internacional de la política monetaria. Palabras Clave: Política monetaria, globalización financiera, flexibilización cuantitativa, oferta de crédito, toma de riesgos, bancos extranjeros. Documento de Investigación
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