Forgotten effects in trade relations: a view from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate Chinese indirect trade relations in the global trade network to observe if the objectives identified by Cai (2017) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are being fulfilled, especially with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the UNCTAD (2016) for the period 2011–2015, a normalized exports network is built. It is analyzed with the Forgotten Effects Theory and the PageRank algorithm. A Monte Carlo experiment with 10,000 replicates is performed to account for its volatility.FindingsThe paper identifies one instance in which China's peripheral countries are importing raw materials and commodities -–oil products – to produce low technological value-added products, which, in turn, are exported to China. LAC countries do not have significant indirect trade relations with China when the former is the origin country, while the latter is the destination in a trade relationship. The trade network has a clear core-periphery structure, with China belonging to its core, although being only the fourth most central node in the network.Originality/valueThis paper contributes with both a new methodology for the analysis of indirect trade relations and the results found for China under the BRI and its trade relationship with LAC economies.

Belt & Road Initiative in Times of ‘Synchronized Downturn’: Issues, Challenges, Opportunities

“…United Nations [162], World Bank [142] UNCTAD [160] or China's Customs Statistical Yearbooks [165] Data on Imports and exports [132], on finance [135,148], Labor-force [166] Panel data and time-series [115,175] Analyzed e.g., by regression [165,173] or super-slack-based measure model [153], cross-correlation analysis [180] Spatial-temporal characteristics analysis [115] Spatial Durbin Model on different cooperative patterns [149] General equilibrium model and spatial distribution of people, economic activity, and transport [154] Complex network method [171] High-Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL) [120] Population and urbanization projection model [178] Economic models (e) Various (v)…”

Towards Local Sustainability of Mega Infrastructure: Reviewing Research on the New Silk Road

“…Eurasian countries [155][156][157] Kazakhstan and Eurasian economic union [158] Central Asia [159] Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries [160]…”

“…Economic growth [115,142,150,169] Regional Labor Markets [162,166] Total factor productivity [136] Tourism development [123] Value chains-global [124,170]regional [157] Global Trade Analysis Project model [136] Indirect trade relations [160] Impact of trade facilitation [138] Debt financing [135,162] Microfinance Institutions [148] Inclusive Finance [148] FDI Networks [171] People-to-people cultural exchange, including traditional Chinese Medicine [137] Social Exchange Theory [123] Vulnerable environment, and energy consumption [155] Environmental efficiency [153] Green Development Capability [149], resource [165]energy [152]water [159] Development Aid Model [161] International development aid and FDI [147] International Capacity Cooperation [132] Modernization and globalization towards bilateral cooperation and strategical relationships [141] State-coordinated investment partnerships [172] Governance [124] Fragile state theory [161] Accumulation regimes, spaces of sovereign exception. elite development paradigm [172] Regionalism [158] Local stakeholders' views [123] Table 6.…”

“…United Nations [162], World Bank [142] UNCTAD [160] or China's Customs Statistical Yearbooks [165] Data on Imports and exports [132], on finance [135,148], Labor-force [166] Panel data and time-series [115,175] Analyzed e.g., by regression [165,173] or super-slack-based measure model [153], cross-correlation analysis [180] Spatial-temporal characteristics analysis [115] Spatial Durbin Model on different cooperative patterns [149] General equilibrium model and spatial distribution of people, economic activity, and transport [154] Complex network method [171] High-Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL) [120] Population and urbanization projection model [178] Economic models (e) Various (v)…”

“…Econometric models and data [138] DEMATEL analysis [124,134] Econometric test process [141] Shift-Share Analysis [166] Monte Carlo experiment [160] Delphi Issues with international experts [181] A scenario analysis method [163] Literature review [170] Policy documents [161,167] Interviews [126,161] Remote sensing monitoring [120,182] Questionnaires [123,169,170] Case study and comparisons [126,131,133,139,158] Indicators and indexing (i)…”