Forest loss in Indonesian New Guinea (2001–2019): Trends, drivers and outlook

Abstract

The rich forests of Indonesian New Guinea are threatened. We used satellite data to examine annual forest loss, road development and plantation expansion from 2001 to 2019, then developed a model to predict future deforestation in this understudied region. In 2019, 34.29 million hectares (Mha), or 83% of Indonesian New Guinea, supported old-growth forest. Over nineteen years, two percent (0.75 Mha) were cleared: 45% (0.34 Mha) converted to industrial plantations, roads, mine tailings, or other uses near cities; 55% (0.41 Mha) cleared by transient processes including selective natural timber extraction, inland water bodies-related processes, fires, and shifting agriculture. Industrial plantations expanded by 0.23 Mha, with the majority (0.21 Mha; 28% of forest loss) replacing forests and reaching 0.28 Mha in 2019 (97% oil palm; 3% pulpwood). The Trans-Papua Highway, a 4,000 km national investment project, increased by 1,554 km. Positive correlations between highway and plantations expansion indicate these are linked processes. Plantations and roads grew rapidly after 2011, peaked in 2015/16, and declined thereafter. Indonesian government allocated 2.62 Mha of land for the development of industrial plantations (90% oil palm 10% pulpwood) of which 74% (1.95 Mha) remained forest in 2019. A spatial model predicts that an additional 4.5 Mha of forest could be cleared by 2036 if Indonesian New Guinea follows similar relationships to Indonesian Borneo. We highlight the opportunities for policy reform and the importance of working with indigenous communities, local leaders, and provincial government to protect the biological and cultural richness still embodied in this remarkable region.

Gondwanan survivor lineages and the high‐risk biogeography of Anthropocene Southeast Asia

“…The results of this study highlight the temporal disconnect between the deep‐time‐to‐recent success of survivor fossil lineage movements representing biogeographic history and adaptation, and the limited contemporary capacity of plants to respond to the immediacy of short‐term climate‐change impacts. The conditions for woody rainforest plant dispersal and establishment are now more constrained by the barriers created by high‐stand sea levels, recent forest clearing, and changed land use than ever before (Gaveau et al, 2021). Sea area is currently at its largest extent, with deep and shallow expanses of seawater both creating significant barriers to the dispersal of propagules.…”

“…Those general patterns were recognized well before today′s rich fossil record from Australia, Antarctica, New Zealand, and South America and the current, advanced understanding of paleoclimatology and plate tectonics (Wallace, 1869; van Steenis, 1934, 1964; Johns, 1976). However, recent history has seen the Southeast Asian rainforests devastated by clearing, fires, industrial logging, and intensive agriculture (Bryan et al, 2013; Ashton, 2014; Ashton et al, 2021; Gaveau et al, 2021; Karger et al, 2021).…”

Environmental stress influences Malesian Lamiaceae distributions

“…This study has not explored human‐caused stressors. Deforestation, non‐natural fires, and domestic livestock‐driven herbivory are all stressors that require examination (Donlan et al, 2002 ; Gaveau et al, 2021 ; Nolan et al, 2021 ; Voigt et al, 2021 ). Incorporation of these factors alongside climate change predictions will be crucial when modeling future scenarios for the Malesian flora.…”

First fossil-leaf floras from Brunei Darussalam show dipterocarp dominance in Borneo by the Pliocene

“…Thus, the densely populated (ca. 400 million people) region has become an epicenter of urgent conservation threats, including wildlife trafficking, deforestation, climate change, fires, and pollution of air, water, and coastal ecosystems ( Hoffmann et al, 2010 ; Bryan et al, 2013 ; de Bruyn et al, 2014 ; Slik et al, 2015 ; Crippa et al, 2016 ; Nater et al, 2017 ; Gaveau et al, 2018 ; Gaveau et al, 2021 ; Corlett, 2019 ; Tilker et al, 2019 ; Joyce et al, 2020 ; Raven et al, 2020 ; Jung et al, 2021 ). Knowledge of fossil history is a powerful conservation tool ( e.g ., Kooyman, Watson & Wilf, 2020 ) that increases public awareness of ecosystem heritage and fulfills evolutionary and geological history criteria for designation of UNESCO World Heritage Sites and other preservation areas worldwide (see ).…”