Foresight technologies in financial provision of small business in Ukraine

Balatskyi, Ievgen; Frolov, Sergiy

doi:10.21511/ppm.15(1-1).2017.07

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The development of the financial environment is influenced by both economic factors and insufficient state financial and legal support. This, in turn, reduces a country's financial security (Frolov et al, 2017;Shkolnyk et al, 2019).…”

Section: Zhuravka Et Al (2021) Assessed and Projectedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment and forecasting of Ukraine’s financial security: Choice of alternatives

Рекуненко

Zhuravka

Nebaba

et al. 2022

Problems and Perspectives in Management

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Financial security of a country is an integral part of its economic security and the basis of national security. The paper aims to assess and forecast the level of Ukraine’s financial security using two methodological approaches (the existing one and the authors’ elaboration) to choose the best alternative. The first one is based on the Methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The alternative one has been developed as a multiplicative model of non-linear convolution of relevant direct and indirect impact indicators, considering the opportunity and risk, which is based on a combination of a power function and the Harrington method. A database of input indicators was formed with further differentiation according to their impact on Ukraine’s financial security. The research results demonstrated that during 2013–2019 Ukraine’s financial security integrated index was cyclical and constantly changing. A comparison of the existing methodology and the developed model demonstrated a certain discrepancy between the obtained results. It was substantiated that the proposed multiplicative non-linear convolution model for assessing and forecasting the state’s financial security is more relevant, includes current indicators sorted by their direct and indirect impact, and adjusts them according to the risk of impact on overall security in the country.

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Section: Zhuravka Et Al (2021) Assessed and Projectedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment and forecasting of Ukraine’s financial security: Choice of alternatives

Рекуненко

Zhuravka

Nebaba

et al. 2022

Problems and Perspectives in Management

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“…The study admitted general negative tendentious to strengthen economic security considering the Covid-19 pandemic. Frolov et al (2017) drew attention to the support of small businesses, the sustainable development of which is the key to the state economic revival. It was noted that the development of the economic environment is influenced by negative economic factors and insufficient state financial and legal support, which is the basis for the development of the shadow economy.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

International economic and social determinants of the state economic security: A causal analysis

Orlov¹,

Bukhtiarova

Marczuk

et al. 2021

Problems and Perspectives in Management

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The priority task for ensuring the economic security of a country, which is especially noticeable in the rapidly changing conditions of the contemporary global world, is to forecast challenges and threats. Economic security is one of the necessary conditions for state development, which provides guidelines for making major social and economic decisions. There are a few studies on the determinants of the economic security and no data about security determinants that are required to monitor it. The study aims to identify possible links between leading determinants of the economic security. For this purpose, on the example of Ukraine, causal links between the formation of real GDP (as the leading determinant that characterizes the economic security of the state), 11 determinants that indicate the level of international economic development, and 6 determinants of social development for the period 2014–2020 were determined. With a 5% level significance, the impact on the volume of real GDP of 14 determinants of state economic security was noted and specific time lags were defined. Besides, the bilateral causal effect and lack of causal connection between individual determinants were mentioned. Findings are helpful for effective public administration. In addition, active measures are needed to combat corruption, shadow and criminal economy, and state protection of domestic producers operating in the military, food, information, and energy security sectors. AcknowledgmentAlina Bukhtiarova gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (0120U100473).

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“…Frolov et al (2017) analyzed financial provision of small businesses and substantiation of its improvement scenarios with the use of foresight instruments. The authors evaluated the criteria of financial provision of small businesses and offered the organizational mechanism of financial provision of small business.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Company’s financial state forecasting: methods and approaches

Jumadilova

Сайлаубеков²,

Kunanbayeva

2017

Investment Management and Financial Innovations

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Planning company's activity is a complex process, in which foresight is of great importance. The paper presents a method to predict financial state of a company using available financial data. For the prediction of quantitative indicators of the company currently there are different ways to build predictive models, such as simple and multiple regressions, autoregressive model and others. In this paper, to predict financial indicators of the company we use econometric modeling techniques. Tools to check the time series for the seasonality and stationarity are used in constructing the models. To check the reliability of the analysis techniques applied backtesting. To apply the developed method we used the values of financial indicators of the Kazakh national oil producing company. However, the method can be used for any company despite its size, industry, and so on. Albeit the method proposed is universal one and enables to predict financial state at any company, it has certain shortcomings and should be used along with fundamental analysis tools. The method proposed in the paper illustrated adequate results with sufficient accuracy according to the backtesting results. Therefore, based on the results of forecasting the financial state indicators, one can conduct a financial analysis of the expected state in upcoming period and use the derived values for future planning.

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Foresight technologies in financial provision of small business in Ukraine

Cited by 5 publications

References 7 publications

Assessment and forecasting of Ukraine’s financial security: Choice of alternatives

Assessment and forecasting of Ukraine’s financial security: Choice of alternatives

International economic and social determinants of the state economic security: A causal analysis

Company’s financial state forecasting: methods and approaches

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