Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level

Gómez‐Limón, José A.; Gómez-Ramos, Almudena; Fernández, Gabriela Sánchez

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.11.007

Cited by 25 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In Europe, a variety of projects using scenario analyses have been undertaken to understand how agriculture might evolve in the future under different assumptions (Gomez-Limon et al, 2009). These include: the Ground for Choices project examining how agriculture and forestry might change in the European Union (WRR, 1992); the EURURALIS project examining rural futures in an enlarged EU (Klijn et al, 2005); the FFRAF project aiming to support the development of science and technology policy for agriculture (SCAR, 2007); the SCENAR 2020 project designed to help inform reform under the CAP Health Check (EC, 2007); the Agriculture 2013 project (INRA, 2007); and the FUTURPAC project, which researched the impact of various drivers on agriculture in the Castille Leon region of Spain for 2020 (Gomez-Limon et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include: the Ground for Choices project examining how agriculture and forestry might change in the European Union (WRR, 1992); the EURURALIS project examining rural futures in an enlarged EU (Klijn et al, 2005); the FFRAF project aiming to support the development of science and technology policy for agriculture (SCAR, 2007); the SCENAR 2020 project designed to help inform reform under the CAP Health Check (EC, 2007); the Agriculture 2013 project (INRA, 2007); and the FUTURPAC project, which researched the impact of various drivers on agriculture in the Castille Leon region of Spain for 2020 (Gomez-Limon et al, 2009). Most recently, the European Commission has set out a series of three scenarios for the possible future evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy post 2013 (EC, 2010): we return to these scenarios in the "Discussion" section of the paper, since they form an important focus for current policy discussions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Farm-scale ecological and economic impacts of agricultural change in the uplands

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Farm-scale ecological and economic impacts of agricultural change in the uplands

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…However, no examples of this technique being applied to CBNRM exist in the consulted literature. Godet (1986) transformed strategic foresight analysis from an initial philosophical and literary form into a technique that could be operationalized through a variety of quantitative methods (known by the French name of la prospective), which together constitute a toolbox for the implementation of this method (Gómez-Limón et al 2009). PSA is part of the toolbox of la prospective and one step in the process of scenario-building, another technique proposed by this method (Arcade et al 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting prospective structural analysis to strengthen sustainable management and capacity building in community-based natural resource management contexts

Delgado-Serrano¹,

Vanwildemeersch²,

London³

et al. 2016

E&S

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

. 2016. Adapting prospective structural analysis to strengthen sustainable management and capacity building in community-based natural resource management contexts. Ecology and Society 21 (2) ABSTRACT. Local communities collectively managing common pool resources can play an important role in sustainable management, but they often lack the skills and context-specific tools required for such management. The complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), the need for management capacities, and communities' limited empowerment and participation skills present challenges for community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. We analyzed the applicability of prospective structural analysis (PSA), a strategic foresight tool, to support decision making and to foster sustainable management and capacity building in CBNRM contexts and the modifications necessary to use the tool in such contexts. By testing PSA in three SES in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina, we gathered information regarding the potential of this tool and its adaptation requirements. The results suggest that the tool can be adapted to these contexts and contribute to fostering sustainable management and capacity building. It helped identify the systems' dynamics, thus increasing the communities' knowledge about their SES and informing the decision-making process. Additionally, it drove a learning process that both fostered empowerment and built participation skills. The process demanded both time and effort, and required external monitoring and facilitation, but community members could be trained to master it. Thus, we suggest that the PSA technique has the potential to strengthen CBNRM and that other initiatives could use it, but they must be aware of these requirements.

show abstract

“…Initial strategic foresight analysis turned from a philosophical and literary form to be operationalised through a variety of quantitative methods, which together make up a toolbox for the implementation of the method (Gómez-Limón et al, 2009). The PSA is part of this toolbox and a step in the process of scenario building.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Prospective Structural Analysis to Assess the Relevance of Rural Territorial Development in Spain and Nicaragua

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rural Territorial Development policy approach was launched in Europe to foster rural development under the LEADER initiative. It sparked off great interest in Latin America. We analyse the role played by RTD principles in the dynamics and evolution of four rural areas in Spain and Nicaragua. In doing so, we provide empirical understanding on the validity of the principles to boost rural change and contribute to evidencebased policy-making. Methodologically, we explore the use of participatory prospective tools that apprehend rural areas’ evolving and complex nature. The potential of Prospective Structural Analysis to describe rural dynamics, and to support social changes and decision-making is tested.

show abstract

Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level

Cited by 25 publications

References 8 publications

Farm-scale ecological and economic impacts of agricultural change in the uplands

Farm-scale ecological and economic impacts of agricultural change in the uplands

Adapting prospective structural analysis to strengthen sustainable management and capacity building in community-based natural resource management contexts

Exploring Prospective Structural Analysis to Assess the Relevance of Rural Territorial Development in Spain and Nicaragua

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About