. 2016. Adapting prospective structural analysis to strengthen sustainable management and capacity building in community-based natural resource management contexts. Ecology and Society 21 (2) ABSTRACT. Local communities collectively managing common pool resources can play an important role in sustainable management, but they often lack the skills and context-specific tools required for such management. The complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), the need for management capacities, and communities' limited empowerment and participation skills present challenges for community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. We analyzed the applicability of prospective structural analysis (PSA), a strategic foresight tool, to support decision making and to foster sustainable management and capacity building in CBNRM contexts and the modifications necessary to use the tool in such contexts. By testing PSA in three SES in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina, we gathered information regarding the potential of this tool and its adaptation requirements. The results suggest that the tool can be adapted to these contexts and contribute to fostering sustainable management and capacity building. It helped identify the systems' dynamics, thus increasing the communities' knowledge about their SES and informing the decision-making process. Additionally, it drove a learning process that both fostered empowerment and built participation skills. The process demanded both time and effort, and required external monitoring and facilitation, but community members could be trained to master it. Thus, we suggest that the PSA technique has the potential to strengthen CBNRM and that other initiatives could use it, but they must be aware of these requirements.
ABSTRACT. Several examples of community-based natural resource management in Latin American social-ecological systems exist in which communities control the management of common-pool resources. Understanding community perceptions of the performance of these systems is essential to involve communities in sustainable management strategies. In this analysis of three areas in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina, we analyzed the local perceptions of the social and environmental challenges faced by these social-ecological systems and how these challenges and drivers affect their resilience. To do this, we combined prospective structural analysis to unravel stakeholders' perceptions of each system's functioning along with network analysis to assess resilience. We identified external variables as the most influential variables in the Colombian and Argentine cases. In the Mexican case, larger influence is exerted by internal variables, particularly those linked to the governance system. The case study analysis revealed that the community-based natural resource management approach needs external support and recognition to work effectively. In the Argentine and Colombian cases, megaprojects were perceived as controllers with medium or strong influence but low dependence. The use of ancestral knowledge (Colombia), the history of land use (Mexico), and the history of the artisanal fishery (Argentina) were all perceived as common challenges to communitybased natural resource management. In terms of social-ecological resilience, framed within the three-dimensional model of the adaptive cycle, all three social-ecological systems were considered to be highly connected and resilient but with different degrees of capacity or cumulative potential.
Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) studies how institutions (the rules of the game of a society) determine the performance of a social-economic system. Elinor Ostrom extends the institutional analysis to the collective action for a particular case, the study of the social-ecological systems (SESs) (Ostrom 1990). Any group that attempts to manage a common resource (e.g. aquifers, pastures) for optimal sustainable production must solve a set of problems in order to create institutions to facilitate collective action. Some evidences show that following a set of design principles in creating institutions can lead to overcome these problems. The aim of the paper is to apply the SES framework to an artisanal fishery community in Argentina in order to: 1) describe the principal features, key variables and relations of the small-scale fishery system; 2) detect the principal drivers of a potential common-management and the leading detractors from the current communal performance; and 3) analyze the possibility that a self-governing for sustainable fishery may appear. Several drivers for potential common-management and some detractors from the current common performance are summarized. Artisanal fishery SES is currently at a bifurcation point. A common historical and cultural root, the presence of leaderships, the relevance of local knowledge, the dependence on the resource to sustainable livelihoods and the threat of big-scale fisheries area have generated incentives to collectiveaction. But, simultaneously, internal conflicts are the most important barrier for an integrated community-based management. The heterogeneity among actors and the relevant external conditions have resulted in two groups diverging in their self-organization. The work is framed by the project COMET-LA (COmmunitybased Management of Environmental challenges in Latin America; European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme of Research and Development), which aims to identify sustainable community-based governance for the management of natural resources that can be used in different social-ecological systems in a context of climate change and increasing competition in the use of resources.
ABSTRACT. Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.
El turismo como fuente de crecimiento económico: impacto de las preferencias intertemporales de los agentesJ��� G������ B���� S����� L����� M��� R����* Resumen En este trabajo se presenta un modelo en el que se analiza cómo la preferencia por el futuro afecta la inversión según una actividad particular (turismo) basada en los recursos naturales. Bajo el supuesto de valores extremos de preferencia, es posible verificar que sistemas con alta impaciencia (preferencia por el consumo presente) plantean una tasa de inversión que en el extremo es negativa (e igual a la depreciación), junto con la destrucción (basada en el "no cuidado") de los recursos naturales. Dada la dinámica del modelo es posible analizar tres resultados: crecimiento continuo, crecimiento moderado según valores bajos pero positivos de ρ, y trampa de la pobreza, en aquellas sociedades en las que la valoración por el futuro es extremadamente baja. Palabras clave: crecimiento económico, turismo, recursos naturales. Clasificación JEL: C0, O41. I�����������Recientemente, la Organización Mundial del Turismo (OMT, 2010) ha mostrado que luego de la crisis financiera mundial que redujo la demanda del servicio durante los años 2008 y 2009, en el 2010 se produjo un incremento en la tasa de arribos internacionales que superó con creces las caídas acaecidas en los años anteriores, llegando a los 448 millones de turistas y concentrándose este aumento, Manuscrito recibido en diciembre de 2012; aceptado en octubre de 2014.
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