Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Bayoumi, Tamim; Swiston, Andrew J

doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.23

Cited by 59 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…States (Bayoumi and Swiston 2009;Osborn and Vehbi 2013;IMF 2014;Cashin, Mohaddes and Raissi 2012). For the cyclical spillovers between U.S. and global business cycles, see Kose, Otrok and Whiteman (2008); Dees and Saint-Guilhem (2009); Huidrom, Kose, and Ohnsorge (2016); World Bank (2016a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers

Kose¹,

Lakatos²,

Ohnsorge³

et al. 2017

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers

Kose¹,

Lakatos²,

Ohnsorge³

et al. 2017

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“…In line with Bayoumi and Swiston (2007), for each one point reduction in U.S. growth we assume a reduction of about 0.4 to 0.5 percent in the growth of major non-U.S. importers of Latin American goods. Given the high weight of the United States in Latin American exports, this implies an overall reduction of export demand by about 0.8 percentage point below baseline, on average, in 2008.…”

Section: A Us Recession and Credit Crunchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

Österholm¹,

Zettelmeyer²

2008

IMF Staff Pap

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This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian vector-autoregressive model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated using quarterly data from 1994 to 2007 on key external and Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks. Conditional forecasts for a variety of external scenarios suggest that Latin American growth is robust to moderate declines in commodity prices and external growth, but sensitive to more extreme shocks, particularly a combined external slowdown and tightening of world financial conditions. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 595–623. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.20; published online 29 July 2008

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“…Research demonstrates that US economic and fi nancial developments create the largest spillovers to other countries and regions Bui 2010, 2012;Bayoumi and Swiston 2007). Th e main source of these spillovers is fi nancial conditions, which are heavily infl uenced by Federal Reserve policies.…”

Section: The Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Federal Reserve Engages the World (1970–2000)

Truman¹

2016

The Federal Reserve's Role in the Global Economy

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This paper traces the evolution of the Federal Reserve and its engagement with the global economy over the last three decades of the 20th century: 1970 to 2000. The paper examines the Federal Reserve's role in international economic and financial policy and analysis covering four areas: the emergence and taming of the great inflation, developments in US external accounts, foreign exchange analysis and activities, and external financial crises. It concludes that during this period the US central bank emerged to become the closest the world has to a global central bank. 2 Th e Federal Reserve enters its second century as the closest the world has to a global central bank. Th e US central bank is more infl uential and engaged globally than at any previous time in its history and more than any other central bank.In formulating US monetary policy, the Federal Reserve increasingly has to take account of the developments outside of the US economy and the impacts of its policy decisions on other economies and global fi nancial markets. Th ese trends intensifi ed in the 21st century, but they emerged in the last three decades of the 20th century, the focus in this paper. 1 I review four areas of the Federal Reserve's role in the global economy: (1) the emergence and taming of the great infl ation; (2) developments in US external accounts; (3) the foreign exchange value of the US dollar, US exchange rate policy, and international fi nancial markets; and (4) external fi nancial crises. Th ese interrelated areas absorbed the majority of Federal Reserve activity on international economic and fi nancial policy issues.On the great infl ation, the intellectual and policy challenge facing the Federal Reserve in the 1970swas not only to recognize the infl ation problem but also to diagnose the phenomenon not as something imported from abroad via increases in energy prices and exogenous dollar depreciation, but primarily as homegrown, nurtured if not propagated primarily by Federal Reserve policy.Prospects for the US trade and current account balances and the asymmetrical adjustment process were a principal policy preoccupation in the wake of the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system of fi xed exchange rates. Th at policy focus persisted into the 1980s. By 2000, trends in the US external accounts and the sustainability of the US international investment position had largely receded as a pressing policy concern of the Federal Reserve, but were about to reemerge.Th e foreign exchange value of the US dollar is central to the analysis of prospects for the US external accounts, but has many other dimensions. For the Federal Reserve, the most controversial dimension was the involvement of the Federal Reserve System (System) in US foreign currency operations. By the mid-1990s, this issue had become less salient because the tool of foreign exchange market intervention fell into disuse.Th roughout the last third of the 20th century, the Federal Reserve was deeply engaged in the management and prevention of external fi nancial ...

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Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Cited by 59 publications

References 23 publications

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers

The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

The Federal Reserve Engages the World (1970–2000)

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