Forecasting urban growth across the United States–Mexico border

Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Guertin, D. Phillip

doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2008.10.003

Cited by 47 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…IGT identified that slopes greater than 25% be protected, however, Norman et al (2009) found that urban development south of the international border paid less attention to slope when establishing development, therefore, to represent the larger watershed, we opted to set the resistance of development to slope to the default (15%) for this application. Villarreal et al (2011) created land-cover maps at decadal intervals (1979, 1989, 1999, and 2009) using Landsat Multispectral Scanner and Thematic Mapper data and a classification and regression tree classifier.…”

Section: Current Trends Scenariomentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Each cell is represented with an automaton-an entity that independently executes its own state-transition rules-while recognizing the states and attributes of nearby cells (Jantz et al, 2010). It has been applied in many locations, including the Washington-Baltimore area by Jantz et al (2004) and at Ambos Nogales by Norman, Feller, & Phillip Guertin (2009), and there are multiple variants currently in use that attempt to improve upon the early model (Jantz et al, 2010). The SLEUTH-3r-.rev.1.1includes an urban model and a landcover change transition model, which is applied in this study (Jantz et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

Norman

Feller

Villarreal

2012

Landscape and Urban Planning

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h i g h l i g h t sThe SLEUTH model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to develop future scenarios. Three scenarios simulate changing spatial patterns to help guide planning for the future. Limit growth beyond cross-border commerce areas, protects forests and wildlife habitat. Trade-offs between urban area, the economy, and environmental impacts can be realized. a b s t r a c tThe SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Section: Current Trends Scenariomentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

Norman

Feller

Villarreal

2012

Landscape and Urban Planning

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“…In these regions, water resources are scarce, and population growth and urban expansion are expected to continue to increase (Berling-Wolff and Wu, 2004;Norman et al, 2009). Moreover, projected climate changes are likely to increase the uncertainty of future water resources with higher temperatures and more extreme patterns in rainfall (Gelt et al, 1999;Serrat-Capdevila et al, 2007); thus, municipalities are seeking alternatives to enhance groundwater recharge and encourage water resources conservation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land cover controls on summer discharge and runoff solution chemistry of semi-arid urban catchments

Gallo

Brooks

Lohse

et al. 2013

Journal of Hydrology

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cover controls on summer discharge and runoff solution chemistry of semi-arid urban catchments" (2013 Recharge of urban runoff to groundwater as a stormwater management practice has gained importance in semi-arid regions where water resources are scarce and urban centers are growing. Despite this trend, the importance of land cover in controlling semi-arid catchment runoff quantity and quality remains unclear. Here we address the question: How do land cover characteristics control the amount and quality of storm runoff in semi-arid urban catchments? We monitored summertime runoff quantity and quality from five catchments dominated by distinct urban land uses: low, medium, and high density residential, mixed use, and commercial. Increasing urban land cover increased runoff duration and the likelihood that a rainfall event would result in runoff, but did not increase the time to peak discharge of episodic runoff. The effect of urban land cover on hydrologic responses was tightly coupled to the magnitude of rainfall. At distinct rainfall thresholds, roads, percent impervious cover and the stormwater drainage network controlled runoff frequency, runoff depth and runoff ratios. Contrary to initial expectations, runoff quality did not vary in repose to impervious cover or land use. We identified four major mechanisms controlling runoff quality: (1) variable solute sourcing due to land use heterogeneity and above ground catchment connectivity; (2) the spatial extent of pervious and biogeochemically active areas; (3) the efficiency of overland flow and runoff mobilization; and (4) solute flushing and dilution. Our study highlights the importance of the stormwater drainage systems characteristics in controlling urban runoff quantity and quality; and suggests that enhanced wetting and in-stream processes may control solute sourcing and retention. Finally, we suggest that the characteristics of the stormwater drainage system should be integrated into stormwater management approaches.

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“…Given the fact that dynamic spatial-temporal change process of urban development cannot be prevented, modeling, simulation and prediction of cities' future growth would be applicable as a powerful planning tool to understand the interactions between the natural and anthropogenic environment, and the problems arising from rapid urban growth. Therefore, clarification and prediction of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change are crucial to present a holistic and principled view on more efficient management of natural resources, protection of agricultural land and adoption of long-term sustainable policies to minimize the impacts of human activities on environment (Norman, Feller, & Guertin, 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal urban growth dynamics of Lagos Metropolitan Region of Nigeria based on Hybrid methods for LULC modeling and prediction

Wang

Maduako

2018

European Journal of Remote Sensing

103

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An accurate information on the amount and location of Land use and land cover (LULC) changes is necessary to develop and implement a sustainable-urban planning.This research investigates the potential of an integrated Multi-Layer Perceptron and Markov Chain Analysis (MLP-MCA) to map and accurately predict the future LULC change scenarios in Lagos Metropolitan Region of Nigeria. Multi-temporal LULC datasets derived from remotely sensed Landsat images from 1984, 2000 and 2015 were used for modeling, validation and prediction. Predicted LULC changes for 2030 and 2050 were performed based on the LULC map of 2015 using MLP-MCA method. The result reveals a significant expansion of built-up areas during the whole study period. Analysis of LULC distribution in Lagos metropolitan region shows that about 50% of urban land expansion happened beyond the administrative boundary of Lagos State during the period of 2000-2015. It is predicted that more than 75% of future urban growth will occur across the border of Lagos State, in the neighbouring Ogun State by 2050. These results imply that a strong and consistent collaboration between different states is crucial to establish an effective regional planning framework and ensure a proper planned growth of the metropolitan region.ARTICLE HISTORY

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Forecasting urban growth across the United States–Mexico border

Cited by 47 publications

References 13 publications

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

Land cover controls on summer discharge and runoff solution chemistry of semi-arid urban catchments

Spatio-temporal urban growth dynamics of Lagos Metropolitan Region of Nigeria based on Hybrid methods for LULC modeling and prediction

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