Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

Abstract

h i g h l i g h t sThe SLEUTH model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to develop future scenarios. Three scenarios simulate changing spatial patterns to help guide planning for the future. Limit growth beyond cross-border commerce areas, protects forests and wildlife habitat. Trade-offs between urban area, the economy, and environmental impacts can be realized. a b s t r a c tThe SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.Published by Elsevier B.V.

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

“…Two urban growth scenarios were developed for SCWEPM using the fuzzy constrained cellular automata (CA) model, SLEUTH (Slope, Land use, Exclusion, Urban extent, Transportation, and Hillshade) (Norman et al 2012). SLEUTH is a land-use/land-cover change model that processes land surface changes that are regulated by neighborhood rule conditions (Jantz et al 2010).…”

“…SLEUTH is a land-use/land-cover change model that processes land surface changes that are regulated by neighborhood rule conditions (Jantz et al 2010). SLEUTH inputs included the following: S, slope from 30 m National Elevation Dataset Digital Elevation (DEM) raster; L, a binational, historical suite of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) data derived from 1979, 1989, 1999, and 2009 satellite imagery ); E, defined exclude areas including conservation areas, protected lands, open water, and floodplains; U, urban extent layer derived from LULC; T, binational vector transportation data sets; and H, DEM-derived hillshade (see Norman et al 2012 for detailed SLEUTH methods).…”

“…Map of the CANAMEX freeway with a 15-km strip zone on either side, allocated for the Megalopolis urban growth scenario (adapted fromNorman et al 2012). The 0 exclude category is displayed as transparent.…”

Applying a regional land use approach to mine closure: opportunities for restoring and regenerating mine-disturbed regional landscapes

“…Focus is being put on planning that includes all oil sands operators in a regional rehabilitation plan towards adequately addressing collaborative goals for future regional land use. However, there is evidence that regional land use planning is being undertaken more from a watershed or catchment perspective, driven by the need for long-term water supply to urban areas (Norman et al 2012;Lilieholm et al 2012); or from an ecosystem goods and services perspective (Woodruff & Bendor 2016;Dale et al 2000).…”

Building systems-based scenario narratives for novel biodiversity futures in an agricultural landscape

“…The use of scenarios in planning processes is recommended for contexts of high uncertainty and low controllability (Peterson, Cumming, & Carpenter, 2003), and to open up constrained thinking to new possibilities (Chermack, 2004). In this journal alone, there are accounts of scenarios being used to initiate discussion about future constraints and opportunities for rural development (Van Berkel, Carvalho-Ribeiro, Verburg, & Lovett, 2011), to develop visual aids that enhance learning about climate change impacts and/or development trajectories (Albert, Zimmermann, Knieling, & von Haaren, 2012;Lamarque et al, 2013;Norman, Feller, & Villarreal, 2012), and to explore policy options for alternative futures (Pearson, Park, Harman, & Heyenga, 2010;Southern, Lovett, O'Riordan, & Watkinson, 2011).…”