Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore

Abstract

This study attempts to forecast tourist inflow in South East Asia and choses Singapore as a case. For Singapore, tourism is one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings since it has no natural resources to support its economy. Therefore, forecasting of tourist arrivals in the country becomes very important for the reason that the forecasting may help tourism related service industries (e.g. airlines, hotels, shopping malls, transporters and catering services, etc.) to plan and prepare their resources and activities in an optimal way. In this paper, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methodology was considered for making monthly predictions on tourist arrival in Singapore. The best model for forecasting is found out to be (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 and monthly forecasting were obtained for two years in future. Further, various statistical tests (e.g. Dickey Fuller, KPSS, HEGY, Ljung-Box, Box-Pierce etc.) were applied on the time series for adequacy of best model to fit, residual autocorrelation analysis and for the accuracy of the prediction.Keywords: Forecasting, Seasonal ARIMA, Tourist Arrivals, Singapore. ResumoEste estudo tenta prever o fluxo turístico no Sudeste Asiático e escolhe Singapura como um caso. Para Singapura, o turismo é uma das principais fontes de divisas, uma vez que não possui recursos naturais para sustentar a sua economia. Portanto, a previsão de chegadas de turistas no país torna-se muito importante pelo motivo que a previsão pode ajudar as indústrias de serviços relacionados com o turismo (por exemplo, companhias aéreas, hotéis, centros comerciais, transportadoras e serviços de catering, etc.) para planear e preparar os seus recursos e atividades de uma forma otimizada. Neste trabalho, foi utilizada a metodologia SARIMA de modo a fazer previsões mensais de chegadas turísticas a Singapura. O melhor modelo de previsão é considerado ser (1,0,1) (1,1,0) 12, sendo obtidas previsões mensais num prazo de dois anos relativamente ao futuro. Além disso, vários testes estatísticos (por exemplo Dickey Fuller, KPSS, Hegy, Ljung-Box, BoxPierce etc.) foram aplicados sobre as séries cronológicas para adequação do melhor modelo para o ajuste, da análise de auto correlação residual e para a precisão da previsão.Palabras clave: Previsão, Seasonal ARIMA, chegadas de turistas, Singapura.

Analysis of the Tourism Demand for Iberian Ham Routes in Andalusia (Southern Spain): Tourist Profile

“…There are hardly any studies on the potential demand for ham tourism in Andalusia, although there are local areas [45] mainly due to the difficulty of obtaining data on tourists, since the statistics held by businesses dedicated to tourism are scarce. In this research, we have compiled the information of the tourists that visit the different ham routes in Andalusia, mainly the ham drying areas, where most of this type of tourist is concentrated using ARIMA models, which are widely used for predicting tourism demand [46][47][48][49]. Figure 11 shows a slight upward trend in these 7 years analyzed (January 2012 to December 2018).…”

Malaysia Tourism Demand Forecasting Using Box-Jenkins Approach

“…The best model usually was picked with the p-value of parameter less than 0.05 and the p-value of L-Jung Box value higher than 0.05 [23]. Equations (1), (2), and (3) were referred and proposed by [24]. The autoregressive process of order p is denoted AR (p) is generally defined as follows:…”

“…Xt= εt -θ1 εt-1 -θ2 εt-2 -… -θq εt-q (2) The general ARIMA model which allocates seasonality can be written as follows:…”

“…In the past few decades, tourism industry has become crucial especially to the growth of countries' economy which is always related to the development of new jobs, the rising of money exchange rate, the increasing of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and many more. Naturally, tourism means the activities of people visiting or traveling to other places of their interest besides their living area for a few days [1,2,3]. According to The Oxford English Dictionary, the synonym of tourist can also be called as visitor, traveler, sightseer, backpacker, tripper, and others.…”

“…For example, historical places like A'Famosa, skyscrapers like Petronas Twin Tower, islands, beautiful natures and Malaysian different cultural [5,6]. Instead of travelling for holidays, international tourists come to Malaysia for medical treatment, business trip, sports trip and others [7,2,8]. Since tourism industry is crucial to boost Malaysia's economy, accurate forecasting of the future tourism demand may help people who work in tourism-related-business to make a correct judgment, plan strategy and minimize the side effect if the prediction is decreasing for the next year.…”