Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

Quassim, M. S.; Attia, Abdel-Fattah; Elminir, Hamdy K.

doi:10.1007/s11207-007-0447-8

Cited by 25 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Hathaway and Wilson (Hathaway & Wilson 2004) gave a prediction of 70. Pishkalo (Pishkalo 2008) predicted 112.3 ± 33.4, and Quassim and Attia (Quassim et al 2007) predicted 116. Hamid and Galad (Helal & Galal 2013) predict the peak of 118.…”

Section: Prediction Of Cycle 25mentioning

confidence: 95%

Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

Miao

Wang

Ren

et al. 2020

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions. A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon, and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators. Some predictions have been made using differentmethods and the values are drastically different. However, since 2015 July 1, the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series, and the sunspot number values have changed greatly. In this paper, using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices, we verify the predictions for cycles 18–24 based on Ohl’s PrecursorMethod. Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7 (±1.1) near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima, our predicted Version 2 maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5 (±32.9).

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Section: Prediction Of Cycle 25mentioning

confidence: 95%

Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

Miao

Wang

Ren

et al. 2020

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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“…Finally neural network forecasts (Quassim et al 2007;Parsapoor et al 2015) are derived from nonlinear, statistical algorithms that determine and model complex relationships between inputs and outputs to find patterns in the data that can be extrapolated. Dikpati et al (2006) predicted the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo based tool.…”

Section: Sunspot Cycle Prediction Techniques -A Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sunspot cycle prediction using multivariate regression and binary mixture of Laplace distribution model

Sabarinath

Anilkumar

2018

J Earth Syst Sci

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Prediction of sunspot cycle is a vital activity in space mission planning and various engineering decision making. In the present study, the sunspot cycle prediction has been carried out by a hybrid model which employs multivariate regression technique and the binary mixture of Laplace distribution (BMLD) function. The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is being applied to the multivariate regression analysis to obtain a robust prediction of the sunspot cycle. Sunspot cycle 24 has been predicted using this technique. Multivariate regression model has been derived based on the available cycles 1 to 23. This model could predict cycle 24 as an average of previous cycles. Prediction from this model has been refined to capture the cycle characteristics such as bimodal peak at the high solar activity period by incorporating a predicted peak sunspot number from the BMLD model. This revised prediction has shown more accuracy in forecasting the major discrete features of sunspot cycle like maximum amplitude, the Gnevyshev gap, time duration from peak to peak amplitude, and the epoch of peak amplitude. This refined prediction shows that cycle 24 will be having a peak amplitude of 78 with an uncertainty of ±25. Moreover, the present forecast says that, cycle 24 will be having double peak with a strong second peak compared to the first peak. This hypothesis is found to be true with the realized data of cycle 24. Further, this techniques have been validated by predicting sunspot cycles 22 and 23. A preliminary level prediction of sunspot cycle 25 also been carried out using the technique presented here. Present study predicts that, cycle 25 also will be a modest cycle like the present cycle 24, and the peak amplitude may vary in a band of 75-95.

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“…Other types of predictions are those made from artificial intelligence using neural networks. In some works, this kind of prediction method has been used to predict the amplitudes of Solar Cycle 24 and 25 (Gholipour et al, 2005;Quassim, Attia, and Elminir, 2007;Okoh et al, 2018;Pala and Atici, 2019;Prasad et al, 2022) and also for giving a forecast of the butterfly diagram in space and time (Covas, Peixinho, and Fernandes, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Critical Comment on “Can Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum?”

PEGUERO

Carrasco²

2023

Sol Phys

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The sunspot number is the most used solar-activity index to study the behavior of solar activity. In this work, we reproduce the methodology of Coban, Raheem, and Cavus (Solar Phys. 296, 156, 2021) using a long short-term memory model with daily data from the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) to predict the maximum amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. We have also used that same methodology with daily values from the official sunspot number (Version 2) of the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO). The objective of this work is to analyze if the predictions obtained from that methodology agree with the observed values available for the current Solar Cycle 25. Thus, we conclude that the predictions are not reproducing well the behavior of the Solar Cycle 25 in its rising phase. Moreover, contrary to the previous prediction, no minor peak occurred in February 2022, and we also conclude that it seems unlikely that the combination of the solar-activity level of Solar Cycle 24 and 25 constitutes a new Dalton-type Minimum, such as Coban, Raheem, and Cavus (2021) proposed.

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Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

Cited by 25 publications

References 15 publications

Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

Sunspot cycle prediction using multivariate regression and binary mixture of Laplace distribution model

A Critical Comment on “Can Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum?”

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