A Critical Comment on “Can Solar Cycle 25 Be a New Dalton Minimum?”

Abstract

The sunspot number is the most used solar-activity index to study the behavior of solar activity. In this work, we reproduce the methodology of Coban, Raheem, and Cavus (Solar Phys. 296, 156, 2021) using a long short-term memory model with daily data from the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) to predict the maximum amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. We have also used that same methodology with daily values from the official sunspot number (Version 2) of the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO). The objective of this work is to analyze if the predictions obtained from that methodology agree with the observed values available for the current Solar Cycle 25. Thus, we conclude that the predictions are not reproducing well the behavior of the Solar Cycle 25 in its rising phase. Moreover, contrary to the previous prediction, no minor peak occurred in February 2022, and we also conclude that it seems unlikely that the combination of the solar-activity level of Solar Cycle 24 and 25 constitutes a new Dalton-type Minimum, such as Coban, Raheem, and Cavus (2021) proposed.