Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourist Visits to Indonesia Used Intervention Analysis with Step Function

Abstract

Intervention analysis is a method for processing time series data that can be used to explain the effect of an intervention that is influenced by external and internal factors. One application of this method is the data on the number of foreign tourist visits. Since the emergence of COVID-19 in Indonesia, especially in March 2020, Indonesia has begun to implement a lockdown policy and restrict foreign tourists from entering Indonesia. Lockdown policy caused the number of foreign tourist arrivals to decreased drastically. The purpose of this study was obtained a model and forecast results for the number of foreign tourist arrivals for the period November 2021 to November 2022 used a step function intervention analysis. The results of the analysis was shown that the ARIMA intervention model (0,1,1) with a step function with an intervention orde of b=0, s=0, and r=0 was the best model. The results of forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia will increase slowly from November 2021 to November 2022 with a MAPE value 9.91%.