Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity

Botkin, Daniel B.; Saxe, Henrik; Araújo, Miguel B.; Betts, Richard; Bradshaw, Richard; Cedhagen, Tomas; Chesson, Peter; Dawson, Terence P.; Etterson, Julie R.; Faith, Daniel P.; Ferrier, Simon; Guisan, Antoine; Lindhardt, Anders T.; Hilbert, David W.; Loehle, Craig; Margules, Chris; New, Mark; Sobel, Milton; Stockwell, David

doi:10.1641/b570306

Cited by 507 publications

(405 citation statements)

References 66 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

398

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Despite all the effort in recent years that has gone into identifying and understanding the major sources of uncertainty associated with the use of bioclimate envelopes to model and predict current and future species distributions and developing performance criteria for different models (e.g. Kadmon et al 2003;Araújo et al 2005b;Guisan & Thuiller 2005;Luoto et al 2005;Thuiller et al 2005;Araújo & Guisan 2006;Araújo & Rahbek 2006;Elith et al 2006;Heikkinen et al 2006;Lawler et al 2006;Araújo & Luoto 2007;Botkin et al 2007;Heikkinen et al 2007;Luoto et al 2007;Beale et al 2008;Green et al 2008;Luoto & Heikkinen 2008;Araújo et al 2009;Engler et al 2009;Titeux et al 2009;Randin et al 2009b;Franklin 2010;Hoffman et al 2010;Mouton et al 2010;Smulders et al 2010), the key assumption remains, namely that climate is assumed to limit the observed distribution in bioclimate envelope models. The greatest uncertainty is whether this assumption holds for the species modelled today (Beale et al 2008;Duncan et al 2009;Chapman 2010), and hence in predictions for the future (Dormann 2007a) and in the use of such bioclimatic-envelope models as a basis for inferring past climate from fossil remains.…”

Section: Basic Principles and One Or A Few Indicator Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

Birks

2011

TOECOLJ

328

284

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The importance of reconstructing past environments quantitatively in palaeoecology is reviewed by showing that many ecological questions asked of palaeoecological data commonly involve the reconstructions of past environment. Three basic approaches to reconstructing past climate from palaeoecological data are outlined and discussed in terms of their assumptions, strengths, and weaknesses. These approaches are the indicator-species approach involving bioclimateenvelope modelling; the assemblage approach involving modern analogue techniques and response surfaces; and the multivariate calibration-function approach. Topics common to all approaches are reviewed -presentation and interpretation, evaluation and validation, comparison, and general limitations of climate reconstructions. Challenges and possible future developments are presented and the potential future role of quantitative climate reconstructions in palaeoecology is summarised.

show abstract

Section: Basic Principles and One Or A Few Indicator Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

Birks

2011

TOECOLJ

328

284

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Many approaches may be used to model the impacts of climate change on species distributions (e.g. Hamann and Wang, 2006;Austin, 2007;Botkin et al, 2007) but considerable use has been made of bioclimate envelope models (e.g. Berry et al, 2002;Garzon et al, 2007).…”

Section: Species Distribution Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

An overview of recent remote sensing and GIS based research in ecological informatics

Boyd

Foody

2011

Ecological Informatics

113

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article provides an overview of some of the recent research in ecological informatics involving remote sensing and GIS. Attention focuses on a selected range of issues including topics such as the nature of remote sensing data sets, issues of accuracy and uncertainty, data visualization and sharing activities as well as developments in aspects of ecological modeling research. It is shown that considerable advances have been made over recent years and foundations for future research established. BackgroundGeotechnology has been couched as one of the three "mega-technologies" of the 21 st century, along with nanotechnology and biotechnology (Gewin, 2004). On the cusp of the second decade of the 21 st century it is evident that recent developments in the geotechnologies of Geographic Information Science (GIS) and remote sensing have had a substantial impact on ecological research, providing spatial data and associated information to enable the further understanding of ecological systems (Rundell et al., 2009). In a digital society there is sometimes an expectation that information is just a click away and this may apply to spatial information in the domain of ecological informatics. Indeed, it has been in the last five years that developments in and relating to the fields of GIS and remote sensing, such as those seen in internet technologies (e.g., Web 2.0; high performance communication networks; Brunt et al., 2007), sensing technology (e.g., quantum well infrared photodetectors; Krabach, 2000), data standards and interoperability (e.g., OGC® KML 2.2) and spatially explicit modeling (e.g., Osborne et al., 2007), have resulted in the revelation of previously unobservable phenomena and posing of what might be termed second generation of ecological questions. During this time we have also seen more support for the open exchange of data and software and infrastructure for location based services. This paper serves as a review of some of the recent developments in GIS and remote sensing that have been or promises to be of benefit to ecological informatics. The subjects addressed are necessarily selective and limited in scope, drawing on topics of interest to us and, we hope, to you.

show abstract

“…Adaptation can occur predominantly in one particular dimension, but generally involves all of them. When populations cannot adapt in one of these dimensions or cannot adapt fast enough (Devictor et al, 2008;Visser, 2008), a species may be driven to extinction, even though today's projections are probably overestimated (Botkin et al, 2007) due to assumptions and limitations of current forecasting methods (refer to Thuiller, 2004, andThuiller et al, 2008, for the spatial dimension). .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Maggini¹,

Lehmann²,

Kéry³

et al. 2011

Ecological Modelling

142

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tClimate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either "move, adapt or die". In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.

show abstract

Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 507 publications

References 66 publications

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

An overview of recent remote sensing and GIS based research in ecological informatics

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About