Forecasting the economy development based on a stochastic model of economic growth given a turning point

Vorontsovskiy, Aleksey V.; Vyunenko, Lyudmila F.

doi:10.21638/11701/spbu05.2016.401

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The study confirms the second part of the hypothesis about the impact of the specifics of a regional economic system on the scale of shock consequences and the susceptibility of a region. For comparison, Vorontsovsky et al (2016) propose to predict the response of a regional economic system to shocks by determining the time point when the development trend and 'turning points', while Bakhtizin, Buchwald, Kulchugin (2017) suggest to assess the perspectives of regional differentiation in terms of cyclical development. Conceptually, our approach does not contradict the above-mentioned studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of external institutional shocks on Russian regions

Данилова¹,

Bogdanova²,

Karpushkina³

et al. 2020

Auc Geographica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The aim is to assess the susceptibility of the regional economy to shocks associated with unexpected changes in institutional rules, trading instruments, as well as accession to international organizations. The impulse response approach to the study of shocks served as a methodological basis. The authors propose and test a new methodological approach that consists in identifying regions characterized by persistent development or a potential for changing the gross regional product as a response to an external shock impulse. It also allows to determine resonant factors that affect the vulnerability, depth and scale of economic consequences. The study reveals that an external institutional shock influences the economic development of regions in various ways, which is due to a number of vulnerability factors. This leads to the formation of territories that differ in the level of susceptibility to shocks and possess the ability to maintain the trend of economic development.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of external institutional shocks on Russian regions

Данилова¹,

Bogdanova²,

Karpushkina³

et al. 2020

Auc Geographica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Unpredictability, randomness, uncertainty, or stochasticitythis integral fundamental property of the economy has for a long time been the subject of special exploration in the modern economic studies enabling the scientists to make some important theoretical conclusions (see e.g. Assessment methods for efficiency indicator, 2013; Malakhov and Pilnik, 2013;Vorontsovskiy and Viyunenko, 2016;Jensen and Palokangas, 2007;Balitskiy et al 2014). In particular, a group of economists suggested that multiplicativity is inherent in uncertainty too: the higher its extent is, the higher the average rate of "preventive saving" is.…”

Section: On Methodology Of Exploring Post-economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable economic development and post-economy of artificial intelligence

Mamedov¹,

Tumanyan²,

Ishchenko-Padukova³

et al. 2018

JESI

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The world economy is currently becoming involved into a most dangerous crisis of systemic nature: into the transition from postindustrial type economy to post-economy of artificial intelligence (AI). The portent to such a "transition crisis" manifests itself in the fact that the wage level has become stable in all industrially developed countries, however, the center of revolutionary qualitative change has by now shifted to a change of the employment structurethe proportion of less qualified workers group keeps decreasing, what is more, exponentially. Meanwhile, bearing in mind that live labor is the major source of increment of national wealth in sustainable postindustrial economy, it can be stated that it has reached the limit of its constructive capacities and urgently demands bringing the "personal factor" of production beyond boundaries of the latter. It is "post-economy of artificial intelligence" that is up to this imperative. It is characterized by the priority of the new source of energy and social communicating technology, it forms a brand-new economic basis which exceeds the potential of postindustrial production. What actually happens is the transition from the "economy of scarcity" to the "economy of abundance". This entails new architectonics of a social order. In post-economy of artificial intelligence, software-controlled production, service and transaction structures gain the global nature initially. As a result, "artificial intelligence" appears to be the creative software. In the new situation, the emergence of more complicated forms of economy is inevitable. Market institutionscompetition, innovation, marketabilitywill be put to comprehensive tests too. A bunch of theoretical questions arise that can be answered by the economic science. It is searching for answers to the set questions that is in the focus of attention of this paper.

show abstract

“…It is assumed that the average stock of capital for this period is determined on the basis of its retirement at a fixed rate. Then the equation of increase in output can be written in the following form [33][34][35]…”

Section: Integration Models Of Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamics In Innovmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated model of stochastic dynamics for control of a socio-ecological-oriented innovation economy

Ramazanov¹,

Antoshkina²,

Babenko³

et al. 2019

PEN

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

On the basis of modern mathematical models, methods and information and technologies, for example, an integrated stochastic nonlinear model of manmade processes and objects, suitable for the conditions of systemic crises, were investigated and developed. Considered in this article are some aspects of integration of a lot of domains and sectors of operation of modern complex systems which are functioning and developing in the present-day conditions of instability, crises and nonlinearity. In order to predict the development of the state of an innovation economy, the nonlinear integrated stochastic model of growthing dynamic in the phase space has been investigated and developed. In the article, problem of the optimization of the management of the activity of modern complex systems that develop and function regarding current conditions of the instability are considered. The prospect of further research based on the developed models is to conduct computer experiments and their practical usisng. The development and study of criterias, methods and models for optimal management of man-made objects and the creation of making decision systems based on the proposed integral models in the state space are also promising.

show abstract

Forecasting the economy development based on a stochastic model of economic growth given a turning point

Cited by 5 publications

References 2 publications

The impact of external institutional shocks on Russian regions

The impact of external institutional shocks on Russian regions

Sustainable economic development and post-economy of artificial intelligence

Integrated model of stochastic dynamics for control of a socio-ecological-oriented innovation economy

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About