Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Application of Arima and Fuzzy Time Series Models

Verma, Prashant; Khetan, M.; Dwivedi, Shikha; Dixit, Shweta

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-36585/v1

Cited by 18 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…In contrast, in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria this model forecasts highly increased of daily case with cumulative daily cases within one month 4041 . Similarly another study conducted India revealed explicit rising of infection in coming days especially in west and south Indian regions are more at risk 42,43 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh using ARIMA model

Kundu¹,

Ferdous²,

Islam³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: COVID-19 is one of the most serious global public health threats creating an alarming situation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for investigating and predicting COVID-19 incidence to control its spread more effectively. This study aim to forecast the expected number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh for next 30 days. Methods: The number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 from 8 March 2020 to 16 October, 2020 was collected to fit an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from 17th October 2020 to 15th November 2020. All statistical analyses were conducted using R-3.6.3 software with a significant level of p< 0.05. Results: The ARIMA (0,2,1) and ARIMA (0,1,1) model was adopted for forecasting the number of daily total confirmed cases, total deaths and total confirmed new cases, new deaths of COVID-19, respectively. The results showed that an upward trend for the total confirmed cases and total deaths, while total confirmed new cases and total new death, will become stable in the next 30 days if prevention measures are strictly followed to limit the spread of COVID-19. Conclusions: The forecasting results of COVID-19 will not be dreadful for upcoming month in Bangladesh. However, the government and health authorities should take new approaches and keep strong monitoring of the existing strategies to control the further spread of this pandemic.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh using ARIMA model

Kundu¹,

Ferdous²,

Islam³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Similarly another study conducted India revealed explicit rising of infection especially in west and south Indian regions were more at risk (Roy et al, 2020;Verma et al, 2020). Furthermore, after the initiation of vaccination, in Bangladesh, till now more than five lakh people were vaccinated around fourteen lakh people with registration for COVID-19 vaccine, which indicates a positive outcome for slowing-down the infection (The Daily Star, 20201).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh using ARIMA model

Kundu

Ferdous

Islam

et al. 2021

Asian J. Med. Biol. Res

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COVID-19 is one of the most serious global public health threats creating an alarming situation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for investigating and predicting COVID-19 incidence to control its spread more effectively. This study aim to forecast the expected number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh for next 3 weeks. The number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 from 8 March2020 to 4 February, 2021 was collected to fit an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from 5th February 2021 to 25th February 2021. All statistical analyses were conducted using R-3.6.3 software with a significant level of p< 0.05. The ARIMA (1,2,1), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (1,2,2) and ARIMA (1,1,2) model was adopted for forecasting the number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and new deaths of COVID-19, respectively. The results showed that an upward trend for the total confirmed cases and total deaths, while total confirmed new cases and total new death, will become stable in the next 3 weeks if prevention measures are strictly followed to limit the spread of COVID-19. The forecasting results of COVID-19 will not be dreadful for upcoming days in Bangladesh. However, the government and health authorities should take new approaches and keep strong monitoring of the existing strategies to control the further spread of this pandemic. Asian J. Med. Biol. Res. March 2021, 7(1): 21-32

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“…Nevertheless, the effectiveness of mitigation strategies taken can be determined or assessed with the aid of mathematical modelling methods [10] . Numerous researchers have been racing in their efforts to seek for solutions and ways to control the spreading of the virus, by developing predictive models and analyzing the trend of cases [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] . In particular, a number of researchers introduced and applied a mathematical model for infectious disease, namely susceptible – exposed – infectious – recovered (SEIR) model, which consists of framework of differential equations, to describe the dynamic and trend of Covid-19 cases and predict their peaks [11] , [12] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their models showed that the actual measured cases in the respective countries match well with their estimated results. In addition, Verma et al [13] and Poonia and Azad [14] applied statistical techniques using time-series and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the trend of infected cases in India. On the other hand, Girardi et al [15] and Rath et al [16] applied regression model for cases in Italy and India, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fuzzy graph approach analysis for COVID-19 outbreak

Hassan¹,

Ahmad²,

Ashaari³

et al. 2021

Results in Physics

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Complex systems require rigorous analysis using effective method, in order to handle and interpret their information. Spectrum produced from Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) instrument is an example of a complex system, due to their overlapped bands and interactions within the spectrum. Thus, chemometrics techniques are required to further analyze the data, in particular, chemometrics fuzzy autocatalytic set (c-FACS). The c-FACS is initially used to analyze the FTIR spectra of gelatins. However, in this study, the c-FACS is generalized and implemented for analysis of Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), particularly, the pandemic outbreak in Malaysia. The daily Covid-19 cases in states in Malaysia are modeled and analyzed using c-FACS, to observe the trend and severity of the disease in Malaysia. As a result, the classification of severity of zones in Malaysia are identified. The obtained results offer descriptive insight for strategizing purposes in combating the Covid-19 outbreak in Malaysia.

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Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Application of Arima and Fuzzy Time Series Models

Cited by 18 publications

References 15 publications

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh using ARIMA model

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh using ARIMA model

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh using ARIMA model

A fuzzy graph approach analysis for COVID-19 outbreak

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