Purpose: The whole world is surfaced with an inordinate challenge of mankind due to COVID-19, caused by 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). After taking hundreds of thousands of lives, millions of people are still in the substantial grasp of this virus. This virus is highly contagious with reproduction number R0, as high as 6.5 worldwide and between 1.5 to 2.6 in India. So, the number of total infections and the number of deaths will get a day-to-day hike until the curve flattens. Under the current circumstances, it becomes inevitable to develop a model, which can anticipate future morbidities, recoveries, and deaths. Methods: We have developed some models based on ARIMA and FUZZY time series methodology for the forecasting of COVID-19 infections, mortalities and recoveries in India and Maharashtra explicitly, which is the most affected state in India, following the COVID-19 statistics till “Lockdown 3.0” (17th May 2020). Results: Both models suggest that there will be an exponential uplift in COVID-19 cases in the near future. We have forecasted the COVID-19 data set for next seven days. The forecasted values are in good agreement with real ones for all six COVID-19 scenarios for Maharashtra and India as a whole as well.Conclusion: The forecasts for the ARIMA and FUZZY time series models will be useful for the policymakers of the health care systems so that the system and the medical personnel can be prepared to combat the pandemic.
The present work suggests some imputation methods to deal with the problems of non-response in sample surveys. The imputation methods presented in this work lead to the precise estimation strategies of population mean. Empirical studies are carried out with the help of data borrowed from natural populations to show the superiorities of the suggested imputation methods over usual mean, ratio and regression methods of imputation in terms of the mean square error criterions. Suitable recommendations have been put forward for the survey practitioners.
Practitioners in all applied domains value simple and adaptable lifetime distributions. They make it possible to create statistical models that are relatively easy to manage. A novel simple lifetime distribution with two parameters is proposed in this article. It is based on a parametric mixture of the exponential and weighted exponential distributions, with a mixture weight depending on a parameter of the involved distribution; no extra parameter is added in this mixture operation. It can also be viewed as a special generalized mixture of two exponential distributions. This decision is based on sound mathematical and physical reasoning; the weight modification allows us to combine some joint properties of the exponential and weighted exponential distribution, which are known as complementary in several modeling aspects. As a result, the proposed distribution may have a decreasing or unimodal probability density function and possess the demanded increasing hazard rate property. Other properties are studied, such as the moments, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, Rényi entropy, stress-strength reliability, and mean residual life function. Subsequently, a part is devoted to the associated model, which demonstrates how it can be used in a real-world statistical scenario involving data. In this regard, we demonstrate how the estimated model performs well using five different estimation methods and simulated data. The analysis of two data sets demonstrates these excellent results. The new model is compared to the weighted exponential, Weibull, gamma, and generalized exponential models for performance. The obtained comparison results are overwhelmingly in favor of the proposed model according to some standard criteria.
Background In India, around 20,000 women die every year due to abortion-related complications. In count data modeling, there is sometimes a prevalence of zero counts. This article is concerned with the estimation of various count regression models to predict the average number of spontaneous abortions among women in Punjab and few northern states in India. The study also assesses the factors associated with the number of spontaneous abortions. Methods This study includes 27,173 married women of Punjab obtained from the DLHS-4 survey (2012–13) to train the count models. The study predicts the average number of spontaneous abortions using various count regression models, and also identifies the determinants affecting the spontaneous abortions. Further, the best model is validated with other northern states of India using the latest data (NFHS-4, 2015–16). Results Statistical comparisons among four estimation methods reveals that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions. The study suggests total children born to a woman, antenatal care (ANC) place, place of residence, woman’s education, and economic status are the most significant factors affecting the instance of spontaneous abortion. Conclusions This article offers a practical demonstration of techniques designed to handle count outcome variables. The statistical comparisons among four estimation models revealed that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions, and it suggests policymakers to use this model to predict the number of spontaneous abortions. The study recommends promoting higher education among women in Punjab and other northern states of India. It also suggests that women must receive institutional antenatal care and have a limited number of children.
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