Forecasting the consumption of gasoline in transport sector in pakistan based on ARIMA model

Abstract

An important part of renewable energy strategy of any country is to find suitable transportation fuels to substitute for gasoline and diesel oil. Ethanol has been widely adopted as a substitute for gasoline and diesel oil. The quantity of ethanol required as renewable transport fuel is related to nature of gasoline and diesel demand. Based on data for 1991-2014, this study used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to estimate the consumption of gasoline in transportation sector in Pakistan from 2015 to 2025. The model results fit well with historical data showing high degree of accuracy. Study provides useful information for designing policy in favor of substituting gasoline with ethanol. Additionally, forecasted results provide useful support for designing an appropriate infrastructure and investment plan with reference to both gasoline and E10 in future. This study also provides a drive for existing refineries to focus on upgrading production configurations in order to increase the share of gasoline in their product-mix.

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