Analysis of Sectoral Energy Demand in Pakistan

Raza, Raza Ali Khan; Faizan, Mirza Faizan Ahmed; Naz, Jaweriya

doi:10.53909/rms.05.01.0215

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 11 publications

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“…Estimation for the coal in Pakistan energy outlook 2020 shows this as the Giffen goods indicates that increase price level led to increase in demand for the product (Raza et al, 2023). Contrarily, the current estimate of Demand for coal shows positive relation with the gas tariff for industrial sector.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Estimating Sectoral Energy Demand in Pakistan

Khan,

Ahmed,

Ghoor

2023

iRASD J. Eco.

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The energy sector is fuel for the development of the economy as it affects multiple sectors. Consideration of socio-economic impact, it is essential to plan for sustainable energy. For optimal energy usage, it is important to identify demand and supply in Pakistan along with existing challenges. This research aims to estimate Pakistan's energy demand for all five sectors: industrial, residential, transportation, commercial, and agriculture. Different factors have been recognized and analyzed for this research aim that influence the energy demand in each sector. This study Applied box Jenkins which followed systematic procedures including identification, estimate, analytical check, and forecasting of the model. This approach is relevant for the medium- and long-term time series data. The results indicate that the final energy demand is affected by different factors among which the main factor is the applied tariff in that sector and the real GDP of Pakistan. Consumption of each source of energy varies in each sector. From the overall analysis, it has been found that the major share of energy is from transportation oil which accounts for 27.5%, followed by a second share of 12.9% of industrial gas at 12.9%, domestic gas at 12.0%, and industrial coal at 20.4%. From the analysis of the results, the core issue in the energy sector is a gap in energy demand-supply in Pakistan due to a deficit of oil and gas and import dependency. Compared to the previous year's result it has been found that there is an increase in each sector with higher growth in industrial, residential and commercial demand. Price and real GDP were effective in determining the demand for energy sources in each sector. Based on the results, it is recommended to minimize dependency on imported energy sources and promote innovative and sustainable energy production.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Estimating Sectoral Energy Demand in Pakistan

Khan,

Ahmed,

Ghoor

2023

iRASD J. Eco.

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Energizing rural Pakistan through optimization of stand alone hybrid systems with techno-economic, multi-criteria decision and sensitivity analysis

Zubair,

Ullah,

Alanazi

et al. 2024

Environ Dev Sustain

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Pakistan Energy Outlook for Next 25 Years

Naz,

Ahmed,

Khan

2024

BBE

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This research aims to estimate the sectoral demand and supply of energy in Pakistan. It incorporates macro and microeconomic data to make reliable forecasting for each sector and sources of energy that is aligned with demographic, economic and industrial development of Pakistan. Box Jenkins methodology in which the ARMAX model is applied to use historical data for forecasting. This research used the time series data from 1990 to 2021. From the analysis, it has been found that estimated energy indicates that energy demand and supply will be continuously increasing, and the demand and supply gap will be minimized in the next 25 years. The overall estimates of the energy supply mix indicate that over-dependence on oil for energy production will be reduced from 23.3% in 2021 to 15.2% in 2046. Similarly, demand for oil will decline from 21.2% in 2021 to 10.7% in 2046. However, supply mix reflects an inclination towards the usage of coal and renewable energy sources for the production of energy. In addition, renewable energy sources demand increases from 1.0% in 2021 to 7.3% in 2046. The core finding of the research suggests that energy deficit will decline with the effective implement a government energy supply plan that result in the elimination of energy deficit in next seven years. There is a supply and demand gap even though both energy demand and supply will increase. Higher dependence on imported energy import bills is on continuous rise which burdened the economy with higher debt. However, by shifting it to renewable energy sources, this can be minimized and made the energy affordable and accessible. The energy estimates for the supply suggest that dependence on oil will decline due to higher environmental concerns. However, there will be more inclination toward sustainable sources of energy production.

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Analysis of Sectoral Energy Demand in Pakistan

Cited by 3 publications

References 11 publications

Estimating Sectoral Energy Demand in Pakistan

Estimating Sectoral Energy Demand in Pakistan

Energizing rural Pakistan through optimization of stand alone hybrid systems with techno-economic, multi-criteria decision and sensitivity analysis

Pakistan Energy Outlook for Next 25 Years

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