Forecasting streamflow response to increased imperviousness in an urbanizing Midwestern watershed using a coupled modeling approach

Sunde, Michael G.; He, Hong S.; Hubbart, Jason A.; Scroggins, Craig

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.05.002

Cited by 22 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…With regards to model optimization, it proved to be advantageous to include field-based soil database of the Torrens catchment as model input that resulted in satisfactory streamflow simulation of both peak and base flows (Figures 3 and 5) and improved simulation results for nutrient loads when compared with results for the urban catchment Aldgate of a previous study by Shrestha et al [27] that was based on a coarser representation of soils. All urbanization-related scenarios predicted increased streamflow as a result of increased surface flow and decreased baseflow that corresponds well with findings by Richards et al [16] and Sunde et al [19]. The trends of predicted TP loads as appeared to be strongly positively correlated with streamflow since phosphorus is primarily transported by sediments in surface streamflow.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Water Quality Control Options in Response to Catchment Urbanization: A Scenario Analysis by SWAT

Nguyen

Recknagel

Meyer

2018

Water

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Urbanization poses a challenge to sustainable catchment management worldwide. This study compares streamflows and nutrient loads in the urbanized Torrens catchment in South Australia at present and future urbanization levels, and addresses possible mitigation of urbanization effects by means of the control measures: river bank stabilization, buffer strip expansion, and wetland construction. A scenario analysis by means of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) based on the anticipated urban population density growth in the Torrens catchment over the next 30 years predicted a remarkable increase of streamflow and Total Phosphorous loads but decreased Total Nitrogen loads. In contrast, minor changes of model outputs were predicted under the present urbanization scenario, i.e. urban area expansion on the grassland. Scenarios of three feasible control measures demonstrated best results for expanding buffer zone to sustain stream water quality. The construction of wetlands along the Torrens River resulted in the reduction of catchment runoff, but only slight decreases in TN and TP loads. Overall, the results of this study suggested that combining the three best management practices by the adaptive development of buffer zones, wetlands and stabilized river banks might help to control efficiently the increased run-off and TP loads by the projected urbanization of the River Torrens catchment.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Water Quality Control Options in Response to Catchment Urbanization: A Scenario Analysis by SWAT

Nguyen

Recknagel

Meyer

2018

Water

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Approximately 60% of the city of Columbia, Missouri is located in HCW. A major portion of the catchment is comprised of urban land cover (~30%), with forested (~32%) and agricultural (~36%) areas being the other dominant types (Sunde, He, Hubbart, & Scroggins, ). After becoming listed as impaired under the guidelines of the Clean Water Act, Hinkson Creek (HC) has been the target of efforts to mitigate erosion and nonpoint source pollution (Hubbart, Holmes, & Bowman, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In SWAT, hydrologic processes such as surface runoff, infiltration, ET, canopy interception, and soil water movement are simulated at the HRU level (Neitsch, Arnold, Kiniry, & Williams, 2011). The SWAT has been used effectively for a wide variety of climate change and land-use hydrologic impact assessments (Gassman, Sadeghi, & Srinivasan, 2014;Gassman et al, 2007;Sunde et al, 2016;Zeiger & Hubbart, 2016 National Land Cover Dataset (Homer et al, 2015). The SWAT was calibrated and validated using stream discharge observations from the HC USGS gauging station (Figure 1).…”

Section: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Swat) Description And mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed-use watershed

Sunde

Hubbart

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Process.

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Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (ΔC) and severe (ΔS) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from −5.9% to −26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under ΔS. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (ΔS), fall (ΔS) and summer (ΔC) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.

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“…Há vasta literatura destacando o uso de modelos em estudos teóricos e aplicados em vários campos da Pedologia (por ex., Hoosbeek e Bryant, 1992;Brooks e Richards, 1993;Pachepsky et al, 2006;Minasny et al, 2008;Vanwalleghem et al, 2013), da Climatologia (por ex., Wilks e Wilby, 1999;Viles e Goudie, 2003;Salmun e Molod, 2006;Donner e Large, 2008;Harrison et al, 2016), da Biogeografia (por ex., Moorhead et al, 1996;Jørgensen, 2008;Rovira e Rovira, 2010;Acevedo et al, 2012;Baird, 2013), da Geomorfologia (por ex., Fernandes, 1996;Kirkby, 1996;Kirkby, 2003;Lawler e Fairchild, 2010;Parker et al, 2011;Perron et al, 2012), da Hidrologia (por ex., Kampf e Burges, 2007;Ranatunga et al, 2008;Beven, 2012), entre outros. Da mesma forma, destacam-se estudos de modelagem na previsão e análise dos impactos associados a mudanças ambientais (por ex., Sohl e Sayler, 2008;Kettner e Syvitski, 2012), à expansão de áreas urbanas (por ex., Sunde et al, 2016) e à previsão de desastres naturais (por ex., Borga et al, 2014;Tonini et al, 2014). O contínuo crescimento do uso da modelagem nas últimas décadas reflete, pelo menos em parte, a maior popularização e os avanços nas técnicas de computação, os avanços nas próprias técnicas de modelagem, o reconhecimento da necessidade do estudo dos sistemas ambientais de modo integrado, assim como um aumento na demanda de estudos de previsão (Mulligan e Wainwright, 2013).…”

Section: Modelos Em Geografia Físicaunclassified

Modelagem em Geografia Física: Teoria, Potencialidades e Desafios

Fernandes

2016

EspacoAberto

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A modelagem vem se consolidando como importante ferramenta de análise nos diferentes campos da geografia física. Este artigo busca uma reflexão sobre o uso de modelos na geografia física, discutindo suas bases teóricas, as principais potencialidades de aplicação e os maiores desafios a serem enfrentados. São aqui discutidos modelos voltados para a predição, para a retrodição e para o teste de hipóteses. Ênfase é dada à análise dos modelos matemáticos, sejam eles empíricos, determinísticos ou mesmo estocásticos, discutindo as vantagens e desvantagens do uso de modelos concentrados ou distribuídos, assim como transientes ou de equilíbrio. As diferenças entre as etapas de parametrização, calibração, validação e verificação durante o desenvolvimento de modelos são apresentadas e discutidas. Por último, são apresentados alguns dos principais problemas e desafios associados a um efetivo emprego de modelos na geografia física, com destaque para as relações entre modelagem e metodologia científica, a questão da equifinalidade e a determinação das incertezas envolvidas. A discussão aqui apresentada destaca que modelos com elevado grau de acerto não necessariamente representam “bons modelos” em termos conceituais. Para que a modelagem continue se consolidando como importante ferramenta de análise nos diversos campo da geografia física, torna-se fundamental que os usuários se dediquem à compreensão tanto do funcionamento do sistema a ser modelado quanto do modelo em si utilizado, seja em termos de sua estrutura interna ou das hipóteses ali envolvidas. Caso contrário, o usuário se tornará apenas um “piloto de software”, perdendo a oportunidade de transformar os bonitos mapas gerados em efetivas ferramentas de análise científica.

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Forecasting streamflow response to increased imperviousness in an urbanizing Midwestern watershed using a coupled modeling approach

Cited by 22 publications

References 45 publications

Water Quality Control Options in Response to Catchment Urbanization: A Scenario Analysis by SWAT

Water Quality Control Options in Response to Catchment Urbanization: A Scenario Analysis by SWAT

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed-use watershed

Modelagem em Geografia Física: Teoria, Potencialidades e Desafios

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