Forecasting Season Onsets in Kapuas District Based on Global Climate Model Outputs

Nurdiansyah, Laode; Faqih, Akhmad

doi:10.29244/j.agromet.32.1.1-10

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 14 publications

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“…Predictions of extreme weather events can be obtained using the results of global climate model simulations (Nurdiansyah and Faqih, 2018), such as the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) model. This model can fill the gap between medium-scale weather prediction (15 days) and seasonal scale (3 to 6 months) (Vitart and Robertson, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frost Predictions in Dieng using the Outputs of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Model

Aini

Faqih

2021

J.Agromet

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Dieng volcanic highland, where located in Wonosobo and Banjarnegara regencies, has a unique frost phenomenon that usually occurs in the dry season (July, August, and September). This phenomenon may attract tourism, but it has caused losses to farmers due to crop damage. Information regarding frost prediction is needed in order to minimize the negative impact of this extreme event. This study evaluates the potential use of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) forecast dataset for frost prediction, with a focus on two areas where frost usually occurs, i.e. the Arjuna Temple and Sikunir Hill. Daily minimum air temperature data used to predict frost events was from the outputs of the ECMWF model, which is one of the models contributed in the Subseasonal to Seasonal prediction project (S2S). The minimum air temperature observation data from the Banjarnegara station was used in conjunction with the Digital Elevation Model Nasional (DEMNAS) data to generate spatial data based on the lapse rate function. This spatial data was used as a reference to downscale the ECMWF S2S data using the bias correction approach. The results of this study indicated that the bias-corrected data of the ECMWF S2S forecast was able to show the spatial pattern of minimum air temperature from observations, especially during frost events. The S2S prediction represented by the bias-corrected ECMWF model has the potential for providing early warning of frost events in Dieng, with a lead time of more than one month before the event.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frost Predictions in Dieng using the Outputs of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Model

Aini

Faqih

2021

J.Agromet

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Mitigation Strategic of Drought in Central Java Indonesia during Covid-19 Pandemic

Koesuma

Kusuma

Harmoko

2021

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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In 2019, most of the areas in Central Java Indonesia experienced drought disaster. There are 3 districts that conduct emergency response due to drought disasters. If there is another drought in this year during Covid-19 pandemic, it will be very fatal due to the need for more water than usual. Besides being used for daily needs, water is also needed for washing hands and bathing during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to determine the level of drought in Central Java province and provide solutions on how to reduce the drought strategy so as not to aggravate the spread of Covid-19. The method used to determine rainfall prediction is the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) method with input data of average monthly rainfall for approximately 30 years in Central Java. Then to determine the drought map using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method with input data of rainfall prediction for the last 3 months from the CCA method. The results of data processing show that in August to October 2020 there was a drought with normal levels in almost all regions in central Java, except in the Muria peninsula which is still very wet (August-September) and wet (October). In November and December 2020 there was a drought in all regions in Central Java with normal levels. The level of dryness in this period is normal, meaning it is neither too high nor too dry. Meanwhile, based on several references that at the end of the year there will be a La Nina phenomenon, so that at the end of the year there will be no drought but there will be lots of rain. Several recommendations to overcome this situation will be presented in the final section of this paper.

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The Use of SST Anomaly to Predict Seasonal Rainfall during the Second Planting Period in the Tanoh Abee Irrigation Area, Aceh Besar

2020

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Irrigation in Tanoh Abee is used for agricultural activities especially during the second planting season during dry season. However, the availability of irrigation water is controlled by total rainfall received. An accurate prediction of rainfall, which traditionally used “keneunong” local wisdom, is urgently required. The objective of the study is to obtain the best predictor of seasonal rainfall based on the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the monthly lead time of prediction. We employed monthly rainfall from six stations surrounding the study area and combined with principal component analysis to eliminate rainfall autocorrelation. Seasonal rainfall (quarterly average) was calculated from monthly data. The results showed that 1-month lead time strongly correlated to seasonal rainfall in Tanoh Abee (r<-0.7, α=5%) for the second planting period. On other hand, the 2-month and 3-month lead time were useful to predict seasonal rainfall in March-April-May (MAM) only. For April-May-June (AMJ) and May-June-July (MJJ), the correlation between SST anomaly and seasonal rainfall was weak. This finding indicated that the accuracy of prediction decreases with the longer lead time. Based on our analysis, coordinates of 170° E – 175° E; 5° N - 5° S in Niño 4 region have strongly correlated with seasonal rainfall in MAM, AMJ, and MJJ periods. Moreover, further research is necessary to combine any approaches that will improve our prediction skill for another 2- or 3-month lead time.

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Forecasting Season Onsets in Kapuas District Based on Global Climate Model Outputs

Cited by 3 publications

References 14 publications

Frost Predictions in Dieng using the Outputs of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Model

Frost Predictions in Dieng using the Outputs of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Model

Mitigation Strategic of Drought in Central Java Indonesia during Covid-19 Pandemic

The Use of SST Anomaly to Predict Seasonal Rainfall during the Second Planting Period in the Tanoh Abee Irrigation Area, Aceh Besar

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