Forecasting of Changes in Service System during the Launch Period of the New Automobile Lineup

Abstract

The purpose of the research is developing tools for forecasting changes in the service system during the period when new models of automotive vehicles are being introduced to the market. Research objectives: development of the structure and composition of decision support systems to improve the competitiveness of the service system, development of a mathematical model of a dealer-service network and a simulation model of the network of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The simulation model takes into account the following parameters: the percentage of satisfaction for applications for spare parts directly from the warehouse, the number of posts, the number of workers, the distribution of the flow of applications from the concentration of vehicles in the service center, the mode of operation of the service center. The following research methods were used: methods of system analysis and mathematical statistics, elements of the theory of reliability, simulation, computer experiment. After verification and validation of the developed model, a computer experiment was conducted with the current parameters. The obtained simulation values are reliable at a 5% significance level. The following result was achieved: a simulation model was built for the functioning of the dealer-service network that can be used in strategic planning for expanding the service network and entering new markets.

The role of reverse logistics in the transition to a circular economy: Case study of automotive spare parts logistics

“…The transition from a "workable" state to the "repair required" state is determined by the established dependencies of the probability of a vehicle's failure on the mileage. The results obtained after the run of the model showed its viability and made it possible to establish optimal modes of spare parts supplies [34]. Since currently there is insufficient data on reverse flows, the verification was performed on model data based on statistical data and information about the possibility of repair and rebuilding.…”