Forecasting major impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on country-driven sectors: challenges, lessons, and future roadmap

Abstract

The pandemic caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has produced a global health calamity that has a profound impact on the way of perceiving the world and everyday lives. This has appeared as the greatest threat of the time for the entire world in terms of its impact on human mortality rate and many other societal fronts or driving forces whose estimations are yet to be known. Therefore, this study focuses on the most crucial sectors that are severely impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular reference to India. Considered based on their direct link to a country’s overall economy, these sectors include economic and financial, educational, healthcare, industrial, power and energy, oil market, employment, and environment. Based on available data about the pandemic and the above-mentioned sectors, as well as forecasted data about COVID-19 spreading, four inclusive mathematical models, namely—exponential smoothing, linear regression, Holt, and Winters, are used to analyse the gravity of the impacts due to this COVID-19 outbreak which is also graphically visualized. All the models are tested using data such as COVID-19 infection rate, number of daily cases and deaths, GDP of India, and unemployment. Comparing the obtained results, the best prediction model is presented. This study aims to evaluate the impact of this pandemic on country-driven sectors and recommends some strategies to lessen these impacts on a country’s economy.

An Overview of Lifestyle in Communities During The Second Wave of Covid-19 Pandemic

“…Then, ten people were unwilling to continue the research, so they were expelled from the WhatsApp group. Furthermore, the authors provide a questionnaire in Google Forms (Daniele Giansanti and Velcro 2021); (Kumar et al 2021).…”

“…(4) implement a balanced and diverse diet from different types and sources (5) Consumption of adequate https://doi.org/doi.org/10.33086/jhs.v14i3.2099 Eppy Setiyowati -An Overview of Lifestyle in Communities During The Second Wave of Covid-19 Pandemic nutrient intake; (6) supplements consumption for an individual with malnutrition ; (7) regular rest for a minimum of 7 hours each day; (8) regular exercise (Kumar et al 2021).…”

Approaches for forecasting of socioeconomic impacts to the spread of COVID-19 with territorial differences of Russian regions

“…Namely, they suggest focusing more on modeling distributions rather than point estimates, considering multiple dimensions of impact, and continuously reappraising models based on their validated performance. Simple approaches like linear regression or Holt and Winter's models miss inter-dependences of different features and effects [8]. On the other hand, most of the existing research is devoted to forecast brief periods.…”

Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Models

“…In the current circumstances, most of the standard epidemiological models, such as SIR [33] or SEIR models, can be used to estimate future case numbers and locations. The effect of COVID-19 on various country-specific sectors has also been studied using computational modeling [34]. Often, these models have not given useful results because they do not properly take into account the non-stationary social mixing parameters prevailing in Bangladesh [27].…”