Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants

Abstract

Inclusion of additional dimensions to population projections can lead to an improvement in the overall quality of the projections and to an enhanced analytical potential of derived projections such as literacy skills and labor force participation. This paper describes the modeling of educational attainment of a microsimulation projection model of the European Union countries. Using ordered logistic regressions on five waves of the European Social Survey, we estimate the impact of mother's education and other sociocultural characteristics on educational attainment and implement them into the microsimulation model. Results of the different projection scenarios are contrasted to understand how the education of the mother and sociocultural variables may affect projection outcomes. We show that a change in the impact of mother's education on children's educational attainment may have a big effect on future trends. Moreover, the proposed approach yields more consistent population projection outputs for specific subpopulations.

Differentiation of Rural Territories According to the Conditions of Human Reproduction

“…It should be noted that the currently developed methods evaluate only human capital directly, while not taking into account the conditions for its reproduction and formation. In addition, due to the specificity of the available statistical information, such studies are carried out only at the regional level (without identifying rural areas) [11][12][13].…”

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

“…The Centre for Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) aims to investigate the impacts of immigration on the future population in European Union. Full details of the architecture of CEPAM-Mic are available elsewhere 54 , 56 , 59 , 63 , 64 . In brief, CEPAM-MIC is a dynamic, continuous time, event-based, and spatial microsimulation projection model programed in the Modgen language, a microsimulation programming language developed by Statistics Canada, integrated into the Microsoft Visual Studio C + + environment.…”

“…Microsimulation methods have been used by population scientists to model demographic processes, to make detailed and realistic population projections encompassing various population dimensions, and to gain insights on life course transitions 55 . Some examples of the use of microsimulation models in demography are the following: projection of the future effects of the ethnocultural diversity 56,57 ; simulation of the changes in human-capital accumulation, immigration volumes, speed of integration, and labor force participation 58 ; forecasting the potential impact of sociocultural inequalities in education on the future human capital accumulation level 59 ; simulation of the impacts of the decline of literacy skills on the future working-age population; and projection of populations in small areas 60 . See Lomax and Smith 61 for a good overview of microsimulation applications in demography.…”

Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics

“…The education module, which is exhaustively described in Marois et al (2019), determines the highest completed level of education and the age at graduation (for the highest level as well as for intermediary levels) of an individual at birth, considering cohort trends as well as differentials for the most relevant determinants of the individual's education: mother's educational attainment, religion, language, and place of birth (for immigrants who arrived as children). Existing research shows strong intergenerational transmission of education, with mother's education being a particularly salient determinant (Shavit and Blossfeld 1993;Hertz et al 2008).…”