Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?

Lehmann, Robert; Weyh, Antje

doi:10.1007/s41549-016-0002-5

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(20 reference statements)

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“…The two authors also distinguish between the IEB and the LMB, but focus on cross-correlations exclusively. To the best of our knowledge, there is only the study by Lehmann and Weyh (2016) left with which we can compare our analysis. They evaluate the question on employment expectations from the Harmonized EU Business and Consumer Survey to forecasting employment growth for 15 European states separately, including Germany.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They evaluate the question on employment expectations from the Harmonized EU Business and Consumer Survey to forecasting employment growth for 15 European states separately, including Germany. Our paper primarily differs from Lehmann and Weyh (2016) in two respects: firstly, we use monthly employment data instead of quarterly information; and secondly, we compare the accuracies of the IEB and the LMB, as well as other indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

Lehmann

Wohlrabe

2016

Applied Economics Letters

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Abstract. In this paper, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluate the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer, to predict unemployment changes. Since the Ifo Employment Barometer focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the Ifo Employment Barometer outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers' unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

Lehmann

Wohlrabe

2016

Applied Economics Letters

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“…Thus, more accurate forecasts for each component lead, other things being equal, to a reduction in GDP forecast errors. Lehmann, R. conducted an analysis that identified four survey-based indicators that he considered most effective in eighteen European countries: export climate, production expectations of domestic manufacturing companies, industrial confidence indicators and an indicator of economic sentiment [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Impact of Digitalization on the Development of Foreign Economic Activity During COVID-19 Pandemic

Shkalenko¹,

Fadeeva²

2020

Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientific and Practical Conference “Modern Management Trends and the Digital Economy: Fro

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The article describes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the digitalization and foreign economic activity of states. The authors analysed a macroeconomic situation and highlighted its impact on the export climate of countries. They describe the institutional transformations caused by the opportunities and limitations of regulating the digital economy of foreign trade in the context of international economic integration. The article highlights the features of the oil market significantly affecting the formation of the economic policy of the state and the competitiveness of the state in the international market. It describes the role of economic statistics in managing the global economy. Researchers identified trends in institutional changes in the Russian economy under the influence of digitalization during the COVID-19 pandemic. They defined the role of international expansion in the process of digitalization of the economy, markets and global industries. The paper describes the trends in the institutional environment in digital business and international globalization. It identifies the main areas of influence of digitalization on the development of foreign economic activity.

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Time Series Models

Lahiri

Yang

2022

Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics

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Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?

Cited by 16 publications

References 24 publications

Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

Analysis of the Impact of Digitalization on the Development of Foreign Economic Activity During COVID-19 Pandemic

Time Series Models

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