Forecasting corn production in Serbia using ARIMA model

Ilić, Ivana; Jovanović, Sonja; Janković–Milić, Vesna

doi:10.5937/ekopolj1604141i

Cited by 12 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Corn is the most important cash crop in Serbia, with the country being one of the top ten world exporters [1]. Although the production of corn is affected by several harmful insects, the most important pest of corn in Serbia is the European corn borer (ECB) Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner, 1796) (Lepidoptera, Pyralidae) [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular identification of Trichogramma egg parasitoids of Ostrinia nubilalis in northeastern Serbia

Ivezić

Rugman‐Jones

Stouthamer

et al. 2018

Arch biol sci (Beogr)

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The European corn borer Ostrinia nubilalis (Hubner, 1796) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is a major pest of corn (Zea mays Linnaeus, 1753) in Serbia. Regular monitoring of O. nubilalis in the region of Kikinda (province of Vojvodina, Serbia) demonstrated a high percentage of parasitized eggs of this pest. Preliminary identification of the egg parasitoids based on morphological traits revealed that they belong to the genus Trichogramma Westwood, 1833 (Hymenoptera, Trichogrammatidae). The objective of this study was to identify the autochthonous Trichogramma species present in the region of Kikinda by using sequences of ribosomal DNA. Specimens of Trichogramma were reared from parasitized eggs of O. nubilalis collected at different localities in the region of Kikinda. The ITS2 gene was sequenced and subjected to BLAST searches of GenBank NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information). The majority of collected specimens were identified as Trichogramma brassicae Bezdenko, 1968, and a single specimen as T. evanescens Westwood, 1833. Intraspecific variation of T. brassicae was assessed by amplifying the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene. Wasps were also tested for the presence of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia Hertig, 1936 using Wolbachia-specific 16S and wsp primers as a preliminary test for evidence of thelytoky. Understanding of the diversity and biology of autochthonous Trichogramma species is a key step in the potential commercial implementation of these egg parasitoid wasps in the protection of corn fields in Serbia. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. TR31084 and Grant no. III43007]

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular identification of Trichogramma egg parasitoids of Ostrinia nubilalis in northeastern Serbia

Ivezić

Rugman‐Jones

Stouthamer

et al. 2018

Arch biol sci (Beogr)

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“…The chain indices of wheat and maize are also presented in Graph 3. Based on literature, one such factor commonly occurring is the influence of weather conditions, because agricultural crop production is closely related to climate (Bursać et al, 2015, Ilić et al, 2016. Yield variations in wheat among years are mainly associated with weather characteristics, especially precipitation and temperature regimes (Marjanović et al, 2010), and it must be noted that weather conditions play a major role in the occurrence of plant diseases.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The trends in maize and wheat production in the Republic of Serbia

Grčak¹,

Grčak²,

Penjišević³

et al. 2020

Acta agriculturae Serbica

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The total area under cereals during 2018 remained at a long-term stable level of about 1.7 million hectares. Maize and wheat are the most important crops grown in the Republic of Serbia. In the structure of harvested areas under cereals, maize dominates (53%), followed by wheat (38%). The objective of this paper was to determine if there was a recognisable trend line for the production of these crops in the 2007-2018 period. The yield data (Area harvested (ha), Production (tonnes), Production (t/ha)) were collected from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Calculations of relevant and valid trends using central tendency measures, dispersion measures, relative ratios and percentage growth were used for statistical data processing. During the observation period, the average annual growth in maize yield was 6.38%, while the average annual growth in wheat yield was slightly lower, 2.00%. However, it is not possible to create an appropriate trend line for any of the variables in order to predict a future time period, since the coefficient of determination is low.

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“…Forecasting in Prasetya [4] is a form of effort to predict future conditions through testing past circumstances. Argues that forecasting is a business function that seeks to estimate the sales and use of products so that these products can be produced in a fixed quantity [5].…”

Section: Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forecasting using time series analysis for 36 months or 3 years so that to forecast the production of spare parts Cap Catalyst A 25. 4 From Table 8 it can be seen that the data obtained is monthly sales data for 36 months, in the period January 2016 to December 2018 with an average sales of 72,866.36. 4.2 shows the pattern of sales sales data for the period January 2016 to December 2018.…”

Section: Generate Test Design Testing Data For Forecasting 2019 a Usi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Model Number Production of Car Spare Parts at PT. Showa Katou Indonesia with Arima Method

Sukmawati

Juwita

2022

JSG

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In the case of single part production planning at PT Showa Katou Indonesia The problem is the production plan is only a production schedule, the schedule is made only two times (morning and evening) in a day. The schedule is created after the Production Planning Inventory Control (PPIC) contacts the customer to ascertain what the customer needs. After knowing what the customer needs, a production schedule and planning are made. The impact of this erratic production schedule causes loss of production time because if there is no demand then nothing is done by workers and the machine stops production because they have to wait for an erratic production schedule. Another impact is the absence of stock in the warehouse and delays in delivery because they are only waiting for the production schedule from PPIC and waiting for finished goods to be produced. To reduce the bad impact, it is necessary to forecast production planning with data mining methods to help these problems. The method used is the ARIMA method with the model (p,d,q) (1,1,1). The results of testing using tools and manual testing showed significant values with MAD = 52.45, MSE = 3917.84, MAPE = 0.05.

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Forecasting corn production in Serbia using ARIMA model

Cited by 12 publications

References 2 publications

Molecular identification of Trichogramma egg parasitoids of Ostrinia nubilalis in northeastern Serbia

Molecular identification of Trichogramma egg parasitoids of Ostrinia nubilalis in northeastern Serbia

The trends in maize and wheat production in the Republic of Serbia

Forecasting Model Number Production of Car Spare Parts at PT. Showa Katou Indonesia with Arima Method

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