Forecasting and observing: A cross-methodological consideration of Internet and mobile phone diffusion in the Egyptian revolt

Abstract

This study examines the Egyptian revolt (see Zhuo et al., 2011) of January/February 2011 from two discrete perspectives. The first perspective is a contextual marker that takes into account long-term and forecast trends in democracy from 1952 through 2011. The second perspective reports the opinions and viewpoints of Egyptian citizens living in a remote fishing village and resort town through impromptu in-person interviews conducted between 23 and 30 January 2011. The statistical findings evidence that the Internet and mobile phones have helped to facilitate sociopolitical instability and democratic change over time, while the personal interviews paradoxically suggest circumspection in making generalizations about how these events have proceeded across a large population and through a period of tightly suppressed communication when Internet access was shut down. Taken together, characterizing the events in Egypt as having been just a social media revolution therefore appears to misrepresent the evolution of political change in the country through this time period.

An APPetite for APPs: A Comparison of Heavily Reliant and Light Reliant App Users on Political Activity and Media Reliance

“…A key finding of this study, then, is that mobile apps spur both in-person and online political participation, and thus, apps are a catalyst for political engagement. This finding is consistent with examples of how mobile apps were used to mobilize protesters during the Arab Spring and other times of turmoil (Groshek, 2012; Tufekci & Wilson, 2012). Even in times of peace, app users stay politically connected by reading and sharing news reports and commentary with their online contacts and political officials (Gil de Zúñiga et al, 2017; Yamamoto & Nah, 2018; Yoo et al, 2015).…”

The Relationship Between Openness to Experience and Willingness to Engage in Online Political Participation Is Influenced by News Consumption

“…Individuals who take part in online political activities may use social media sites or YouTube to campaign for social or political issues, sign online petitions, connect with other activists, or use computers or computer networks to achieve a political end point (Harlow & Harp, 2011; van Zoonen, Vis, & Mihelj, 2010; Yang, 2009). One notable and recent example of the Internet being used as a platform for political activism was the online activism involved in the “Arab Spring,” during which social media helped organize protests (Groshek, 2012; Haseeb, 2012). Online activism has also been used to stall the passage of bills limiting internet freedom in the United States and Canada (Stop Online Piracy Act and Preventing Real Online Threats to Economic Creativity and Theft of Intellectual Property Act, respectively).…”

Emerging media and press freedoms as determinants of nonviolent and violent political conflicts, 1990–2006

“…As related directly to this study, freer and more developed media systems may theoretically assist peaceful political change (Groshek, 2012). These peaceful transitions in environments of higher media saturation are partially due to the increased accessibility of information, which enriches the public sphere.…”

“…Numerous studies have found an overarching positive relationship between emerging media and social movements (Garrett, 2006; Groshek, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012; Howard and Hussain, 2013) . This research has broadly demonstrated that online and mobile media provide an opportunity and platform to influence the dynamics of political communication.…”

“…Somewhat similarly, Groshek (2009Groshek ( , 2011Groshek ( , 2012 has found that the diffusion of media technologies is crucial to cultivating increased sociopolitical instability, which also demonstrated a positive relationship to democratic growth. Still, there are a multitude of social, economic, international, and domestic political forces that converge to hold or agitate power in any given society.…”