Fooled by local robustness: an applied ecology perspective

Abstract

Abstract. In this short discussion, we point out that it is apparently as easy to be fooled by robustness as it is to be fooled by randomness. Our objective is to bring to the attention of applied ecologists that radius-of-stability robustness models are models of local robustness. As such, these models are utterly unsuitable for the treatment/management of a severe uncertainty characterized by a vast uncertainty space and a likelihood-free quantification of the uncertainty. This observation is particularly pertinent to applications of info-gap decision theory in ecology, conservation biology, and environmental management, where the objective is to identify decisions that are robust against a severe uncertainty of this type.

Contending with uncertainty in conservation management decisions

“…I have published papers using info‐gap decision theory, but now I agree with critics that it overstates the level of uncertainty that it accommodates. Sniedovich is a vocal critic, although some turns of phrase (e.g., referring to “voodoo decision making”) and his mathematical treatment might obscure the case in the eyes of many ecologists. Simultaneously, Sniedovich argues that defenders of info‐gap do not address his major criticisms, which essentially dispute the form of uncertainty analyzed by info‐gap decision theory …”