Contending with uncertainty in conservation management decisions

McCarthy, Michael A.

doi:10.1111/nyas.12507

Cited by 36 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 74 publications

(126 reference statements)

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“…Structured decision-making (SDM) is an application of multiple objective decision analysis that is increasingly proposed for environmental management (e.g. Ewen et al 2014, Tulloch et al 2015, as it deals with the uncertainty inherent within ecological mechanisms, expected outcomes and tradeoffs between stakeholders or outcomes (Gregory et al 2012;McCarthy 2014). The steps of SDM include definition of the problem; development of clear, measurable objectives; consideration of alternative management options; comparison of the likely consequences or outcomes of alternative management options; decision making regarding acceptable levels of uncertainty; and the implementation, monitoring and review of management efficacy.…”

Section: Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversionary feeding: an effective management strategy for conservation conflict?

et al. 2015

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Human population growth has led to increased contact between people and wildlife, with adverse impacts for both, such as damage to economic crops and wildlife persecution. Diversionary feeding, where food is used to draw animals away from problem activities or locations, is sometimes proposed as a socially acceptable conservation action, but little information exists on its success or what influences its efficacy. Here, we review literature on diversionary feeding and evaluate factors contributing to its success or failure. Success varied greatly among studies and successful uptake of diversionary food did not consistently produce outcomes that met stakeholder objectives. Studies often failed to report results in sufficient detail to allow a quantitative evaluation of efficiency. Of 30 trials presented in 21 studies, 13 enabled assessment of outcomes related to the ultimate objective of reducing conflict (related to threatened prey density, crop yield or nuisance reports) and only five of these were considered successful by the researchers conducting the study. A grand mean increase of 15 % in respective measures of success at the outcome stage was found across all studies. Although diversionary feeding is considered expensive, cost-effectiveness analyses were rarely conducted. Only a third of studies reported information on costs and benefits that could be used to inform future management actions. We propose a decision-making framework that incorporates ecological knowledge, financial costs and evidence from previous studies to aid the planning and implementation of diversionary feeding in an adaptive format. Future studies of diversionary feeding should clearly report objectives, results, costs and effort to allow the return-on-investment to be calculated for different levels of management effort.

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Section: Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversionary feeding: an effective management strategy for conservation conflict?

et al. 2015

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“…It is common for conservation managers to perceive learning and experimental approaches as risky, but well-planned adaptive management can account for such risks. Such a deadlock might be broken by combining an adaptive approach with better tools to deal with risk aversion, such as utility functions (Kirkwood, 1997) and stochastic dominance (McCarthy, 2014). Such a deadlock might be broken by combining an adaptive approach with better tools to deal with risk aversion, such as utility functions (Kirkwood, 1997) and stochastic dominance (McCarthy, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, adaptive management is based on finding a solution to the trade-off between the short-term risks and long-term benefits of learning (Runge, 2011). Such a deadlock might be broken by combining an adaptive approach with better tools to deal with risk aversion, such as utility functions (Kirkwood, 1997) and stochastic dominance (McCarthy, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increasingly, conservation scientists apply structured elicitation of expert knowledge (Martin et al, 2012), experimental studies of prospective actions (Armstrong, Castro, & Griffiths, 2007), strategic monitoring of management outcomes (Nichols & Williams, 2006), and decision-support methods (McCarthy, 2014). Increasingly, conservation scientists apply structured elicitation of expert knowledge (Martin et al, 2012), experimental studies of prospective actions (Armstrong, Castro, & Griffiths, 2007), strategic monitoring of management outcomes (Nichols & Williams, 2006), and decision-support methods (McCarthy, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Science can assist in these cases by providing more information to reduce uncertainty and helping managers in making decisions with imperfect knowledge. Increasingly, conservation scientists apply structured elicitation of expert knowledge (Martin et al, 2012), experimental studies of prospective actions (Armstrong, Castro, & Griffiths, 2007), strategic monitoring of management outcomes (Nichols & Williams, 2006), and decision-support methods (McCarthy, 2014). However, threatened species remain difficult subjects because of their precarious nature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk aversion and uncertainty create a conundrum for planning recovery of a critically endangered species

Canessa

Taylor

Clarke

et al. 2019

Conservat Sci and Prac

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Making transparent and rational decisions to manage threatened species in situations of high uncertainty is difficult. Managers must balance the optimism of successful intervention with the risk that intervention could make matters worse. We assessed nest protection options for regent honeyeaters (Anthochaera phrygia) in Australia. Formal expert elicitation highlighted two methods of nest protection expected to improve nest success. However, the risks and benefits of different actions were uncertain; for example, protecting nests from predators might also increase the risk of nest desertion by adults. To avoid risks, the recovery team opted to collect more information before implementation. The two methods of nest protection were compared using a field experiment. However, the same risk aversion limited the experiment to a single variable (nest predation) and dictated the use of artificial nests. The results of the experiment suggested neither action was likely to significantly reduce predation risks (<3% mean differences in survival between treatment and control). When presented with these results, managers made only minor revisions to their estimates; in part, this reflected low confidence by managers that artificial nests could reflect real predation risks. However, estimates were also revised more negatively for the initially less-favored option, despite absence of such evidence, possibly highlighting confirmation bias. In this uncertain situation, the status quo was initially maintained although it was perceived as suboptimal; implementation of the preferred option (tree collars) is now planned for the 2019 breeding season. We faced what might be a common conundrum for conservation of critically endangered species. High uncertainty affects management decisions; however, perilous species status also leads to strong risk aversion, which limits both the willingness to act on limited information and the ability to learn effectively. Structured methods can increase transparency, facilitate evaluation, and assist decision making, but objective limitations and subjective attitudes cannot be circumvented entirely.

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Rapid Assessment Indicates Context‐Dependent Mitigation for Amphibian Disease Risk

Bernard

Grant

2021

Wildlife Society Bulletin

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Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is a fungal pathogen that can cause the emerging infectious disease Bsal chytridiomycosis in some amphibians and is currently causing dramatic declines in European urodeles. To date, Bsal has not been detected in North America but has the potential to cause severe declines in naïve hosts if introduced. Therefore, it is critical that wildlife managers are prepared with effective management actions to combat the fungus. Research has been initiated to identify strategies; however, managers need guidance to prepare for an outbreak until results are available. We conducted a workshop at the Joint Meeting of The Wildlife Society and American Fisheries Society on 30 September 2019 with participants of a Bsal symposium. Our goals were to describe the expected effects of 11 management actions that could be implemented for Bsal in salamander communities in the northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern United States. Participants expected a variety of proposed management actions to decrease pathogen transmission and increase host survival, but also that the selection of a management action may depend on the specific membership of the amphibian community. Collectively, our assessment will help refine research and modeling priorities in an effort to mitigate the risk of Bsal to native U.S. amphibians. © 2021 The Wildlife Society. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

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Contending with uncertainty in conservation management decisions

Cited by 36 publications

References 74 publications

Diversionary feeding: an effective management strategy for conservation conflict?

Diversionary feeding: an effective management strategy for conservation conflict?

Risk aversion and uncertainty create a conundrum for planning recovery of a critically endangered species

Rapid Assessment Indicates Context‐Dependent Mitigation for Amphibian Disease Risk

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