Food systems in a zero-deforestation world: Dietary change is more important than intensification for climate targets in 2050

Theurl, Michaela C.; Lauk, Christian; Kalt, Gerald; Mayer, Andreas; Kaltenegger, K.; Morais, Tiago G.; Teixeira, Ricardo F. M.; Domingos, Tiago; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Erb, Karl‐Heinz; Haberl, Helmut

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139353

Cited by 91 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…With these hypotheses, the world population could be fed in 2050 with much less international trade and much less N pollution than predicted by ''classical'' prospective scenarios linking diet to GDP in each country, considering agricultural specialization according to competitive advantages of each country, and adjusting synthetic N fertilizer use to the national needs and economic possibilities. [75][76][77][78][79][80] Several authors 43,[81][82][83] have explored the ''option space'' of the world agro-food system for diverse human diet and cropping systems intensity while feeding the world population and maintaining unchanged the current total agricultural land, thus avoiding any deforestation. These analyses show that there is a vast range of options for feeding the future world ll population, and that human diet (in particular, the level of animal protein consumption) rather than crop yield is the strongest determinant for that possibility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle: The potential of combining dietary change, agroecology, and circularity

et al. 2021

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After World War II, the evolution of Europe's agro-food system has been marked by intensified use of synthetic fertilizers, territorial specialization, and integration in global food and feed markets. This evolution led to increased nitrogen (N) losses to aquatic environments and the atmosphere, which, despite increasing environmental regulations, continues to harm ecosystems and human well-being. Here, we explore how these N losses can be drastically reduced in a scenario synergistically operating three levers: (1) a dietary change toward less animal products and an efficient recycling of human excreta; (2) the generalization of region-specific organic crop rotation systems involving N 2 -fixing legumes, making it possible to do without synthetic N fertilizers; and (3) the reconnection of livestock with cropping systems allowing optimal use of manure. This scenario demonstrates the possibility to feed the projected European population in 2050 without imports of feed and with half the current level of environmental N losses.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle: The potential of combining dietary change, agroecology, and circularity

et al. 2021

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“…According to the recent report of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, WHO, IFAD, WFP and UNICEF, 2020), it is documented that approximately 690 million people around the world are facing hunger. The main reason behind such shortfall of food is climate change that affects rainfall patterns and ultimately agricultural production, leading to higher food prices and food insecurity (Theurl et al , 2020). So there is an urgent need to take prompt actions to combat such uncertain circumstances faced by people in developing countries by improving farmers’ resistance and adaptability to natural disaster shock and boosting agricultural output sustainably.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural disaster shock, risk aversion and corn farmers’ adoption of degradable mulch film: evidence from Zhangye, China

Aziz

Liu

et al. 2021

IJCCSM

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Purpose Degradable mulch film (DMF) is a potential alternate to polyethylene (PE) mulching. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to explore the effects and paths of natural disaster shock and risk aversion influencing farmers’ DMF adoption. Design/methodology/approach This research is conducted by collecting cross-sectional data of corn farmers in Zhangye, China. First, by using the Tobit model, the paper attempts to explore the effects of natural disaster shock and risk aversion influencing farmers’ DMF adoption. Second, IV-Tobit model is applied to deal with endogenous problems between risk aversion and DMF adoption. Additionally, the researchers used a moderating model to analyze feasible paths of natural disaster shock and risk aversion impacting farmers’ DMF adoption. Findings The outcomes show that natural disaster shock and risk aversion significantly and positively affect farmers’ DMF adoption. Though risk aversion plays a significant moderating effect in influencing farmers’ DMF adoption by natural disaster shock, the moderating effect has a serious disguising effect. By considering the heterogeneity of risk aversion, the paper further confirms that if the intensity of natural disaster shock is increased by one unit, the intensity of MDF adoption by farmers with high-risk aversion also tends to increase by 15.85%. Originality/value This study is the pioneer one, which is evaluating the intensity of farmers’ DMF adoption from adoption ratio, investment amount, labor input and adoption time. Additionally, the research provides important guidelines for policymakers to motivate medium and low-risk aversion farmers to adopt DMF.

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“…Percentage numbers take on social and political importance, shaping policy, and are reminders of the significance of societal reflection upon the framings that emerge around them. That the authors of these FAO reports have been so clear to embed an efficiency framing contrasts sharply with the more transformatory social and dietary change that others [31][32][33][34][35] argue is vital to address the contemporary urgency to reduce emissions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emissions from Animal Agriculture—16.5% Is the New Minimum Figure

Twine

2021

Sustainability

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Knowledge production within the climate sciences is quickly taken up by multiple stakeholders, reproduced in scientific citation and the broader culture, even when it is no longer accurate. This article accomplishes two goals: firstly, it contributes to the clarification of the quantification of emissions from animal agriculture, and secondly, it considers why the dominant framing of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) on this subject focuses on maximizing production efficiency. Specifically, analysing the FAO’s own work on this topic shows that the often-used FAO estimate that emissions from animal agriculture amount to 14.5% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is now out of date. In returning to the FAO’s own explanation of its data sources and its more recent analysis of emissions from animal agriculture, this article finds that the figure of minimum estimate should be updated to 16.5%. The tendency of the FAO to prioritize a technological approach focused on making animal production more “eco-efficient” is critically examined in light of many other evidence-based calls for reductions in animal consumption. An explanation for this FAO approach is offered in terms of a type of epistemological bias.

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Food systems in a zero-deforestation world: Dietary change is more important than intensification for climate targets in 2050

Cited by 91 publications

References 58 publications

Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle: The potential of combining dietary change, agroecology, and circularity

Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle: The potential of combining dietary change, agroecology, and circularity

Natural disaster shock, risk aversion and corn farmers’ adoption of degradable mulch film: evidence from Zhangye, China

Emissions from Animal Agriculture—16.5% Is the New Minimum Figure

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