After World War II, the evolution of Europe's agro-food system has been marked by intensified use of synthetic fertilizers, territorial specialization, and integration in global food and feed markets. This evolution led to increased nitrogen (N) losses to aquatic environments and the atmosphere, which, despite increasing environmental regulations, continues to harm ecosystems and human well-being. Here, we explore how these N losses can be drastically reduced in a scenario synergistically operating three levers: (1) a dietary change toward less animal products and an efficient recycling of human excreta; (2) the generalization of region-specific organic crop rotation systems involving N 2 -fixing legumes, making it possible to do without synthetic N fertilizers; and (3) the reconnection of livestock with cropping systems allowing optimal use of manure. This scenario demonstrates the possibility to feed the projected European population in 2050 without imports of feed and with half the current level of environmental N losses.

This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates’ biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures’ carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent).

This paper analyzes nitrogen (N) flows on organic and conventional dairy farms in Sweden, and compares three indicators for the N pollution associated with the milk: (1) the farm-gate N surplus, (2) the chain N surplus, and (3) the N footprint. We find that, compared to indicators based on N surplus, the N footprint is a more understandable indicator for the N pollution associated with a product. However, the N footprint is not a replacement for the often-used farmgate N surplus per unit area, since the two indicators give different information. An uncertainty analysis shows that, despite the large dataset, 1566 conventional and 283 organic farms, there is substantial uncertainty in the indicator values, of which a large part is due to possible bias in estimates of biological N fixation (BNF). Hence, although the best estimate is that conventional milk has 10-20% higher indicator values than organic, it is conceivable that improved estimates of BNF will change that conclusion. All three indicators simplify reality by aggregating N flows over time and space, and of different chemical forms. Thus, they hide many complexities with environmental relevance, which means that they can be misleading for decision-makers. This motivates further research on the relation between N surpluses and N footprints, and actual environmental damages.

This paper presents EuropeAgriDB v1.0, a dataset of crop production and nitrogen (N) flows in European cropland 1961–2019. The dataset covers 26 present-day countries, detailing the cropland N harvests in 17 crop categories as well as cropland N inputs in synthetic fertilizers, manure, symbiotic fixation, and atmospheric deposition. The study builds on established methods but goes beyond previous research by combining data from FAOSTAT, Eurostat, and a range of national data sources. The result is a detailed, complete, and consistent dataset, intended as a basis for further analyses of past and present agricultural production patterns, as well as construction of scenarios for the future.