Floods, false hope, and the future

Ziegler, Alan D.; Lim, Han She; Tantasarin, Chatchai; Jachowski, Nick; Wasson, Robert J.

doi:10.1002/hyp.9260

Cited by 56 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…An unusual increase in the bacillary dysentery risk in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) during the years 2004 to 2012 is a case in point (see more details in Liu et al, 2017). The recent Thailand floods that occurred in July 2011 and December 2014 also caused severe supply chain disruptions (Ziegler et al, 2012;Haraguchi and Lall, 2015;Promchote et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

2018

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Abstract. Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

2018

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“…Flooding and mudslides affected a large area in North Thailand, including Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phayao, and Mae Hong Song Provinces [26]. The 2011 Chao Phraya River flood that caused $45 billion damage in Thailand highlights the difficulty of water management [27,28]. Despite today's popularization of irrigation, rainfed crop fields remain in a large part of North Thailand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Climate Extremes over North Thailand, 1960–2099

Masud

Soni

Shrestha

et al. 2016

Journal of Climatology

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This study analyzes 24 climate extreme indices over North Thailand using observed data for daily maximum and minimum temperatures and total daily rainfall for the 1960-2010 period, and HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and PRECIS Regional Climate Model simulated data for the 1960-2100 period. A statistical downscaling tool is employed to downscale GCM outputs. Variations in and trends of historical and future climates are identified using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope. Temperature extreme indices showed a significant rising trend during the observed period and are expected to increase significantly with an increase in summer days and tropical nights in the future. A notable decline in the number of cool days and nights is also expected in the study area while the number of warm days and nights is expected to increase. There was an insignificant decrease in total annual rainfall, number of days with rainfall more than 10 and 20 mm. However, the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 9.65% in the future 2011-2099 period compared to the observed 1960-2010 period.

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“…Urban flooding is a major hazard affecting our society [1,2]. In Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), flooding is becoming a more frequent and serious problem, as it happens as a result of both regular and extreme climatic events, such as tropical storms and typhoons [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Ground Subsidence Phenomena in Ho Chi Minh City through the Radar Interferometry Technique Using ALOS PALSAR Data

2015

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The rapidly developing urbanization since the last decade of the 20th century has led to extensive groundwater extraction, resulting in subsidence in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Recent advances in multi-temporal spaceborne SAR interferometry, especially with a persistent scatters interferometry (PSI) approach, has made this a robust remote sensing technique for measuring large-scale ground subsidence with millimetric accuracy. This work has presented an advanced PSI analysis, to provide an unprecedented spatial extent and continuous temporal coverage of the subsidence in Ho Chi Minh City from 2006 to 2010. The study shows that subsidence is most severe in the Holocene silt loam areas along the Sai Gon River and in the southwest of the city. The groundwater extraction resulting from urbanization and urban growth is mainly responsible for the subsidence. Subsidence in turn leads to more flooding and water nuisance. The correlation between the reference leveling velocity and the estimated PSI result is R 2 = 0.88, and the root mean square error Remote Sens. 2015, 7 8544After four years, in regions along Sai Gon River and in the southwest of the city, the land has sunk up to −12 cm. If not addressed, subsidence leads to the increase of inundation, both in frequency and spatial extent. Finally, regarding climate change, the effects of subsidence should be considered as appreciably greater than those resulting from rising sea level. It is essential to consider these two factors, because the city is inhabited by more than 7.5 million people, where subsidence directly impacts urban structures and infrastructure.

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Floods, false hope, and the future

Cited by 56 publications

References 11 publications

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

Changes in Climate Extremes over North Thailand, 1960–2099

Mapping Ground Subsidence Phenomena in Ho Chi Minh City through the Radar Interferometry Technique Using ALOS PALSAR Data

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