Changes in Climate Extremes over North Thailand, 1960–2099

Abstract

This study analyzes 24 climate extreme indices over North Thailand using observed data for daily maximum and minimum temperatures and total daily rainfall for the 1960-2010 period, and HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and PRECIS Regional Climate Model simulated data for the 1960-2100 period. A statistical downscaling tool is employed to downscale GCM outputs. Variations in and trends of historical and future climates are identified using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope. Temperature extreme indices showed a significant rising trend during the observed period and are expected to increase significantly with an increase in summer days and tropical nights in the future. A notable decline in the number of cool days and nights is also expected in the study area while the number of warm days and nights is expected to increase. There was an insignificant decrease in total annual rainfall, number of days with rainfall more than 10 and 20 mm. However, the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 9.65% in the future 2011-2099 period compared to the observed 1960-2010 period.

Projections of Future Climate Change in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam by Using Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)

“…Apart from modeling conventional climatic variables (e.g., temperature and precipitation), the predictive abilities of statistical downscaling tools (e.g., SDSM) were also well documented for other exotic variables such as ground-level ozone and particulate matter [22], and reference evapotranspiration [23,24]. SDSM was also proved skillful in downscaling climate extremes and indices [17,[25][26][27][28]. Additionally, SDSM was applied in combination with a hydrological model, namely Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to characterize the responses of streamflow to future changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures over the upper Ishikari river basin, Japan [29].…”

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

“…Previous regional climate downscaling simulations over Thailand have used a single GCM and single RCM; hence the outcomes provided limited use for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chotamonsak et al, 2011;Champathong et al, 2013;Manomaiphiboon et al, 2013;Torsri et al, 2013;Masud et al, 2016). While some impact assessments at the basin scale have relied on coarse GCM products (e.g., Supharatid, 2016;Supharatid et al, 2016), these studies would be constrained by the limited ability of GCMs to resolve local and basin scale climate processes (e.g., Troin et al, 2015).…”

“…While some impact assessments at the basin scale have relied on coarse GCM products (e.g., Supharatid, 2016;Supharatid et al, 2016), these studies would be constrained by the limited ability of GCMs to resolve local and basin scale climate processes (e.g., Troin et al, 2015). On the other hand, statistical downscaling techniques have also been used in some cases, but the number of published literature is still limited (e.g., Chaleeraktrakoon and Punyawamsiri, 2011;Parajuli and Kang, 2014;Masud et al, 2016;Vu et al, 2016;Saengsawang et al, 2017).…”

Future Inflow under Land Use and Climate Changes and Participation Process into the Medium‐Sized Reservoirs in Thailand

“…e model has a spatial goal of 0.22°C in the matrix and is downscaled to 0.2°C [21]. Abridgment has been generally used to examine environmental change that influences hydrologic frameworks [22,23].…”