Flooding scenarios due to land subsidence and sea‐level rise: a case study for Lipari Island (Italy)

Abstract

Archaeological and instrumental data indicate that the southern sector of the volcanic island of Lipari has been subsiding for the last 2100 years due to isostatic and tectonic factors, at variable rates of up to ~11 mm a−1. Based on this data, a detailed marine flooding scenario for 2100 AD is provided for the bay of Marina Lunga in the eastern part of the island from (1) an ultra-high-resolution Digital Terrain and Marine Model (DTMM) generated from multibeam bathymetry (MB) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), (2) the rate of land subsidence from Global Positioning System (GPS) data and (3) the regional sea-level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When land subsidence is considered, the upper bound of sea-level rise is estimated at 1.36 m and 1.60 m for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. Here, we show the expected impact of marine flooding at Lipari for the next 85 years and discuss the hazard implications for the population living along the shore

Sea Level Rise Scenario for 2100 A.D. in the Heritage Site of Pyrgi (Santa Severa, Italy)

“…Due to the potential significant impacts on both the coast and the heritage sites of the Temple of Pyrgi and the Santa Severa Castle with a beach retreat up to ~25 m, the expected scenario shown in this study can support adaptation planning at different time scales, in agreement with the Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in the Mediterranean. Our results details previous studies for the Italian [19,30,31,32,33,34,35] and the Mediterranean [36,37] regions and can raise awareness of policymakers and heritage managers, highlighting the need for adaptation actions to protect Pyrgi from marine flooding and erosion under the current conditions and for the expected sea level rise scenarios. To this regard, we remark that [38] estimated a mean coastal erosion at a rate of 3.3 cm/year since the last 2.500 years although the retreat of the soft cliffs characterizing the Pyrgi coastline is occurring mostly during high energy marine events.…”

Flooding scenario for four Italian coastal plains using three relative sea level rise models

“…This study is part of a more complex research study on land flooding due to sea level rise and VLMs for the year 2100 in the Italian region, as also reported in Antonioli et al (2017) and Anzidei et al (2017).…”

“…Instrumental and observational data show that global sea level is rising as a result on the sum of eustatic, glacio-hydro-isostatic, and tectonic (including volcanic) signals (Lambeck & Purcell, 2005). Therefore, scenarios of land flooding should take into account the role of vertical land movements (VLMs) (Anzidei et al, 2014;Anzidei et al 2017;Aucelli et al, 2016;Lambeck et al, 2011;Rovere et al, 2012;Wöppelmann & Marcos, 2012), such as natural or anthropogenic land subsidence.…”

Submarine Depositional Terraces at Salina Island (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) and Implications on the Late-Quaternary Evolution of the Insular Shelf

“…These eruptive centres were emplaced close to the Lipari-Salina Channel, separating Salina from Lipari island, where more than 200 m of sediments (mostly with an aggradational pattern) were accumulated in a perched basin (unpublished data), suggesting that this sector has been also affected by a significant subsidence during time. Moreover, local evidence of subsidence, contrasting with the general uplift trend derived by raised marine terraces for the last 127 ka, have been also observed for the last few millennia at Panarea [38] and Lipari [22,[39][40][41], in some coastal and shallow-water sectors.…”